This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Overnight convection across the south-central Plains into the Midwest produced wind and hail. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah into far northwest Colorado. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus water on the Missouri River system and a new monsoon-style flood ticket in Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0745 AM CDT. Valid 161300Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Akron, Salt Lake City, and Dayton. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package.
Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.
WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language for the period beginning 12Z Wednesday has shifted the organized water story west. The Moderate Risk that covered northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri on Tuesday is now the just-hit and river-flood desk. Today’s Moderate Risk is over southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, with a high-end Slight Risk across much of Arizona into southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Isolated flash-flood prospects remain possible later today across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front.
Hotspot 1 — Indiana into Ohio and the upper Ohio Valley
A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over Illinois and northwest Indiana is forecast to track east across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Mid-level westerlies stay modest, generally 20–30 kt. SPC expects additional convective development this afternoon across parts of Indiana into Ohio as a moist low-level airmass destabilizes. Poor lapse rates aloft should limit updraft strength. Locally damaging winds are the hazard if loosely organized clusters form and spread east through early evening, then weaken with loss of heating.
Overnight LSRs already put trees and lines down in Kosciusko and Noble counties in Indiana, plus a measured 65 mph gust near Wallen in Allen County. Northern Indiana and Wilmington, Ohio, offices issued overnight flash-flood warnings for heavy rain of 1.5 to 3 inches in parts of Grant, Blackford, Adams, Wells, and Mercer counties. Those products expired this morning. The water is still on the ground.
Restoration read: wind first this afternoon if clusters organize. Water first in the counties that already took 2–3 inches before dawn. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Indianapolis–Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning.
Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico
This is today’s organized flood ticket. WPC upgraded Day 1 excessive rainfall to Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains. Guidance continues to print 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the Mogollon Rim, south-central Arizona including the Phoenix metro and surrounds, southern Utah slot-canyon country, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language on higher terrain.
SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 1300 UTC outlook. Modest lapse rates, cloud cover, and only marginal deep-layer shear keep the severe-wind/hail threat limited. Gusty outflow is still possible. Water is the story.
Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.
Hotspot 3 — Utah into far northwest Colorado, plus leftover Kansas–Missouri water
On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low over northern California, 35–45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the Great Basin. Ongoing storms over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado are in a strongly sheared but weakly unstable environment. SPC leaves room for isolated severe hail or gusts if cells or small clusters can form with filtered afternoon heating. Limited heating should keep the overall severe risk marginal. Grand Junction issued an overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County; that product expired before dawn.
Kansas and northwest Missouri are no longer the new Moderate Risk. They are the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs include 2.00-inch hail at Edgerton, Kansas; 1.75-inch hail west of Cairo, Missouri; trees, wires, and power poles in Richmond, Ray County; wires down around Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, and west of Raytown; and a small building damaged north of Clifton Hill. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new watch.
Just hit
SPC preliminary storm reports for the 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail clustered from the Texas South Plains through the Kansas City metro into Peoria County, Illinois (1.50 inches near Alta). Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a plant nearby; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph at Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.
Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This morning’s desk treats that corridor as aftermath plus river-flood follow-through.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN / OH / upper Ohio Valley | Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood | SPC Marginal; overnight FFWs expired | Afternoon clusters possible |
| Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM | Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars | WPC Moderate excessive rainfall | Today’s organized water ticket |
| Eastern UT / NW CO | Isolated hail/gusts, burn-scar runoff | SPC Marginal | Afternoon cells possible |
| NE KS / NW MO / Grand River | River flooding, wind/hail damage | Flood warnings; LSRs overnight | Just-hit / in channel |
| TX South Plains / NW OK / south-central KS | Measured severe gusts, isolated hail | LSRs overnight; no watch now | Aftermath |
| Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland | No named cyclone | NHC: no tropical cyclones | Quiet on the mainland coast |
What this means for restoration teams
Wind at 60–75 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Two-inch hail is a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas, and neighboring ZIPs. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.
For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.
What this is not
This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. A trough several hundred miles east of Bermuda has only a low chance of development and is not a land threat today. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 (Thursday) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 holds Slight Risks of excessive rainfall for portions of the north-central Plains, Upper Midwest, and southwestern U.S. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260915 1200 UTC–20260916 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion; National Weather Service warning text including Wilmington OH, Northern Indiana, Grand Junction, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Quad Cities, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 16, 2026.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.