Tag: Colorado storms

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The organized flood desk remains over southern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds two Marginal Risk corridors — much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and a portion of the Southeast that the 20Z update shifted farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama. No convective watches are currently valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail on the Utah corridor, locally severe gusts plus leftover flood axes in the Southeast and central Appalachians, and tree/wire work already on the board in Lauderdale County, Alabama.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Morning desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 (Morning).

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:56 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Halbert/Lyons; valid 222000Z–231200Z) keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. The 20Z update moved the Southeast Marginal farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, where storms had already developed in an unstable airmass with steep low-level lapse rates.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 15:56:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Taylor/Chenard; valid 16Z Tue–12Z Wed) still holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico. WPC notes a potentially significant multi-day flood event over New Mexico and far southwest Texas, with 1–2 inches per hour rain rates this afternoon and training bands tonight. Neighborhood guidance: moderate chance of at least 3 inches (about 40–60 percent) and a low chance of at least 5 inches. Slight Risk axes remain over central to southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida stays a WPC Marginal urban-flood desk.

Live warning-scale water this afternoon includes NWS flash-flood warnings for parts of Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero in New Mexico, and Randolph/Webster in West Virginia — already hung as separate Tygart Media warning pulses. NWS also had a flood advisory for west-central Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) into late afternoon and a severe thunderstorm warning earlier over Jackson and DeKalb Counties, Alabama.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Still the national flood desk. An upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels support a multi-day event. Afternoon is scattered thunderstorms and flash-flood potential; overnight guidance concentrates a rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Sacramento Mountains burn scars remain in the higher-impact language. Flash-flood warnings this afternoon already covered Lincoln, Socorro, Doña Ana, and Otero Counties.

Restoration read: water first, overnight worse than the afternoon pulse. Stage pumps and air movers before the shield organizes. Low-water crossings and burn-scar runoff fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor is the afternoon convective desk in the West. A potent shortwave over the western Great Basin and a belt of stronger mid-level flow from northern Arizona into central and northern Utah support scattered to numerous storms. Buoyancy stays modest (MLCAPE generally under 1,000 J/kg), but shear and cold mid-levels support organized cells, isolated large hail, and strong gusts off high bases and steep low-level lapse rates. Activity can spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening. Larger centers inside the earlier outlook footprint include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail, not a flood CAT. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before early evening. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cores only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians

SPC Marginal for the Southeast is a slow-moving cold front into a moist airmass. The 20Z update pulled the risk south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, matching storms already on radar. Weak shear keeps the mode multicellular and outflow-dominant; water-loaded downdrafts can still put 50–60 mph gusts on the ground. Today’s preliminary LSRs already show Lauderdale County, Alabama wind damage: power lines down west of Lexington around 1814 UTC, a power pole and lines on a vehicle west of Rogersville around 1835 UTC, and lines down at Lauderdale County High School and the adjacent parking lot around 1856 UTC (NWS Huntsville).

WPC Slight flood axes remain over southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia, where soils are already wet and flash-flood guidance is lower. Randolph and Webster Counties, West Virginia, carried a live flash-flood warning into the evening.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Alabama tree and wire jobs are already tickets. Charlotte-to-Atlanta language from this morning is not a derecho — treat each county warning as a local pulse.

Just hit

SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window (as of this afternoon hang) show no tornado reports and no hail reports yet. Wind reports on the board are Lauderdale County, Alabama: lines down 3 W Lexington; pole and lines on a vehicle 2 W Rogersville; lines down at Lauderdale County High School in Rogersville. Those are already restoration tickets — trees, wire, and possible vehicle/roof work — not a regional outbreak.

Monday night’s Appalachians–Southeast flash-flood pulse is aftermath. This afternoon’s live water is New Mexico and pockets of West Virginia, plus a Lee County, Alabama flood advisory earlier this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, training rain tonight, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + live FFWs	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE / central GA / southern AL	Locally severe damaging gusts, trees/wire	SPC Marginal (shifted S/E at 20Z)	Live; AL LSRs already in
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight + WV FFWs	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico is the water CAT if the Moderate risk verifies overnight — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is already producing Lauderdale County tickets; treat Georgia and Alabama warnings as local, not a derecho. West Virginia water is a second flood desk on already-wet ground. Stage New Mexico before the overnight shield. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Post-tropical Fay is open Atlantic near the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. No convective watches are up. Do not invent a named CAT for Restoration Intel off this pulse.

Looking ahead

SPC’s current Day 2 outlook (Wednesday, September 23) is Marginal Risk as of the 1719 UTC issuance (Dean). Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this evening’s Utah and Southeast Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 22, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:56 p.m. CDT); SPC watches page updated 15:56:05 UTC (no watches valid; last watch 0674); SPC today’s LSRs (Lauderdale County, AL wind); WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1553 UTC (Taylor/Chenard); NWS flash-flood warnings for Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero, NM and Randolph/Webster, WV; NHC advisories (Fay remnant, Polo, Odalys). Morning desk: September 22, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC Day 1 ERO for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 20, 2026. The organized pulse is still the Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk over central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. As of 2013 UTC, no convective watches are valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have expired. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is damaging wind and large hail on the Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, leftover interior water where Midwest and Ohio Valley cells trained last night, and a local Florida flash-flood polygon that is not the national headline.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

The SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0244 PM CDT Sunday, September 20, 2026 and valid 202000Z–211200Z, holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. The official summary: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible this afternoon and evening across those two corridors. Isolated severe gusts and hail are also possible in parts of the southern Plains and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. The 20Z update said the forecast remained generally on track with only minor adjustments.

No watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 672. Mesoscale Discussion 2316, issued 0149 PM CDT Sunday and valid through 2115 UTC, covers northeast and eastern Colorado, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska. Language is severe potential, watch possible, with a 60 percent watch-issuance probability. Isolated storms over northeast Colorado, large hail probable, a few severe gusts possible by early evening. Most probable peak hail size in that MD is 1.50 to 2.50 inches. Most probable peak wind gust 55 to 70 mph.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Sunday and valid 16 UTC September 20 through 12 UTC September 21, keeps Slight Risks over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and over the northern High Plains. The 16Z update trimmed the northern edge of the Midwest Slight (northern Illinois, southern Iowa, northern Missouri) and kept the better confidence farther east into the Upper Ohio Valley, where antecedent 24-hour totals already ran 1 to 2 inches areal average and 3 to 4 inches locally. A separate Slight pocket remains focused over southwest South Dakota and the Black Hills on upslope flow and Saturday’s leftover wet ground.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Oklahoma

This is one of the two Slight Risk contours on the 2000 UTC outlook. A surface low sits over central Oklahoma along a cold front that arcs from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Oklahoma and back through the central Texas Panhandle. A shortwave trough is moving into western Oklahoma. The airmass ahead of the front is warm, moist, and moderately buoyant. Mid-level flow is stronger across Oklahoma than across Texas, which is why the organized severe corridor is drawn here rather than over the more disorganized Texas cells. Primary threat language is damaging gusts of 55 to 65 mph, with hail in the stronger cores.

Cities and counties to watch: Tulsa, Broken Arrow, Muskogee, Shawnee, Ardmore, and the rest of the central and eastern Oklahoma Slight contour. Oklahoma City sits near the western edge of the broader risk language even when it is not the center of the Slight.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and roof tarping before dark. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a statewide outbreak. It is a corridor.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas and southwest Nebraska

This is the other Slight Risk plus MD 2316. Easterly low-level flow north of the surface front is holding 50s F dewpoints across eastern Colorado. Heating plus cool temperatures aloft support moderate destabilization. Storm coverage is expected to stay isolated to widely scattered because of cooler surface temperatures and leftover inhibition, but any storm that matures is favored to be supercellular. Primary severe hazard on the outlook is large hail of 1 to 2.5 inches. Isolated severe gusts are possible. Some lingering severe risk may develop over southeast Colorado late this evening and spread into the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

Cities and counties to watch: the Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado, Lamar and the High Plains counties, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska where left-split cells can throw hail. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already fired this afternoon in Dundy and Chase Counties, Nebraska.

Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. This is a few strong cells, not a line. Staff it as spot jobs — broken shingles, cracked skylights, vehicle and siding hits — not a regional CAT.

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers, plus a Florida polygon

WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on last night’s rain axis from central Illinois and east-central Missouri into the Upper Ohio Valley. Antecedent ground is already wet. Training or backbuilding later this evening and overnight could add 2 to 4 inches in the better cores. River and flash-flood products this morning and midday covered eastern Iowa (Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids, Kalona and the English River), the Parkersburg–Athens Ohio River corridor, Charleston and Huntington, Washington County, Pennsylvania, and eastern Ohio counties including Belmont, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, and Tuscarawas. The Des Plaines River near Russell, Illinois, has a new Flood Warning for minor flooding from this afternoon until further notice.

A separate local Flash Flood Warning this afternoon covers southwestern Suwannee County, Florida, with 2 to 3 inches already down. That is a North Florida urban and low-water-crossing desk, not the Slight Risk story.

Restoration read: yesterday’s water is already a ticket in Iowa, Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. Today’s new water, if it verifies, is more of the same corridor plus a standalone Florida polygon. Do not send the Oklahoma hail crew to the Ohio River without checking which county still has a warning.

Just hit

Saturday night’s Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670 (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), 671 (Colorado, Kansas), and 672 (Kansas, Missouri) are closed. Those are already on the books as wind and hail tickets across the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. Overnight and this morning’s Flash Flood Warnings along the Iowa–Illinois line and the Ohio River are extraction and drying work, not a new watch. This afternoon’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma wind corridor and High Plains hail cells under MD 2316.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / eastern Oklahoma	Damaging wind 55–65 mph, hail	SPC Slight	Live outlook; no watch
Eastern CO / far western KS / SW NE	Large hail 1–2.5 in, isolated severe gusts	SPC Slight + MD 2316 (watch possible)	Isolated supercells favored
Ozarks to Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging gusts, leftover water	SPC Marginal; WPC Slight flood	Scattered plus aftermath
Northern High Plains / Black Hills	Flash flood on wet ground	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Afternoon–overnight cells
SW Suwannee County, FL	Local flash flood	NWS Flash Flood Warning	Standalone polygon
Atlantic / EPAC vs. U.S. land	No U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: Fay far east-Atlantic; Odalys and TD 17-E over open Pacific	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Oklahoma wind at 55 to 65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. High Plains hail of 1 to 2.5 inches is shingle and auto work in a few counties, not a multi-state CAT. Midwest and Ohio Valley water from Saturday night is already inside some buildings. That mold clock started this morning, not this evening.

For teams near the Oklahoma Slight or the Colorado–Kansas MD: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. For teams on the Iowa and Ohio River leftovers: you are already on yesterday’s tickets. Check which gauge is still in flood before you drive.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is in the far eastern Atlantic near 34.4°N, 32.7°W and is not a U.S. land threat this afternoon. Tropical Storm Odalys and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E are over the eastern Pacific, well offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Oklahoma county, hail on the High Plains, leftover water in an Iowa or Ohio River town. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Monday’s SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1137 AM CDT Sunday, is a Marginal Risk from Mississippi to the central and southern Appalachians. Official summary: a few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi. Coverage is isolated to widely scattered. Shear is expected to stay weak. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Slight is Monday’s story.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all date-stamped Sunday, September 20, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 2013 UTC); Mesoscale Discussion 2316; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 2120 UTC; National Weather Service watch/warning text including Pittsburgh, Charleston, Chicago, La Crosse, and Tallahassee products. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 670 + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2026. The organized pulse is on the Central Plains cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and central High Plains, covering about 56,800 square miles and nearly 2 million people in the Slight contour, with Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, St. Joseph, and Salina inside the risk area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 is in effect from 3:20 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. CDT for central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, hail dents on the High Plains, trees on wires in the Southeast leftover cells, and interior water where WPC Moderate flood-risk storms stall over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Montana. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 670, issued 3:20 p.m. CDT Saturday, September 19, 2026, is the live convective watch. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. The watch box is drawn roughly along and 65 miles either side of a line from 115 miles west-southwest of Alva, Oklahoma, to 35 miles east-southeast of Manhattan, Kansas. SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2309, issued 2:34 p.m. CDT, had already flagged northwest Oklahoma into central and northeast Kansas for watch consideration; that discussion is now overtaken by the watch itself.

The 2000 UTC outlook summary is unchanged from mid-morning: thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. A Marginal Risk still wraps Indianapolis, Columbus, Denver, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Ohio Valley convection has struggled to stay organized along a surging outflow boundary from north of Columbus into southern Illinois and Indiana; SPC trimmed the northern edge of the Marginal there after temperatures behind the outflow fell into the upper 70s.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Saturday, September 19, 2026, holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest — particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana — and a second Moderate Risk over portions of southern Montana. Guidance cited by WPC includes moderate-to-high probabilities of totals exceeding 5 inches in the better Midwest cores, with some low-end probabilities of 8 inches. Day 2 outlook language eases that to a Slight Risk over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. A cold front is dropping south from southwest Iowa through southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of it the airmass is seasonably moist and, by mid-afternoon, moderately unstable. SPC expects a few short-lived supercells early, then high-based storms and line segments capable of 60 to 75 mph gusts. MD 2309 noted temperatures near 100 F from Texas into southern Kansas, dewpoints near 60 F in the eastern Texas Panhandle and mid-60s toward Wichita, and most-probable peak gusts of 65–80 mph with hail of 1.00–1.75 inches.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, Manhattan, and St. Joseph on the Missouri side of the Slight contour; Alva and northwest Oklahoma; the eastern Texas Panhandle. A 67 mph gust was already measured 3 miles south-southwest of Freedom in Woodward County, Oklahoma, at 2040 UTC.

Restoration read: wind first, hail second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark across the watch. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Treat any ZIP that also sits under training rain as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana flood Moderate

This is the water desk, not the watch. WPC’s 16Z update kept a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. A surface low over the middle Mississippi Valley and enhanced forcing ahead of it support intense cores and high instantaneous rates. Urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams fail first. Sunday’s Day 2 ERO drops this corridor to Slight, so tonight into Sunday morning is the higher-end window.

Restoration read: extraction and drying, not hail claims. If a cell trains over the same ZIP for more than an hour, treat it as an occupied-structure water job. Do not send the same crew to the Kansas watch and a Quad Cities flood call without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central High Plains and southern Montana

SPC holds the Slight Risk west into the central High Plains. Low-level easterly flow is holding upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints. A shortwave moving out of the Great Basin is expected to organize a loosely cellular band into a linear cluster, with hail early and wind later, and some indication the activity continues into western Kansas overnight. Preliminary LSRs already include 1.25-inch hail 5 miles north of Matheson in Elbert County, Colorado, at 2044 UTC, and measured gusts of 59 and 66 mph near Byers in Arapahoe County around 2003–2006 UTC.

Separately, WPC expanded the inherited Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over southern and southeast Montana, matching HREF/RRFS probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and low-end probabilities over 5 inches. That is a High Plains flood and debris-flow desk in burn scars and small drainages, not the Kansas watch.

Restoration read: Colorado and western Kansas are wind-and-hail tickets tonight. Southern Montana is water and mud. Do not conflate the two.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 19 through the afternoon) show no tornadoes as of this desk. Hail: quarter-size near Rome in Floyd County, Georgia, at 1935 UTC; 1.25-inch north of Matheson, Colorado. Wind: trees and power lines down at Signal Mountain and South Pittsburg, Tennessee; trees and blocked roads in Etowah and Jackson Counties, Alabama; multiple trees down near Warm Springs and Highland Park, Georgia; 59–66 mph near Byers, Colorado; 67 mph near Freedom, Oklahoma. Those tree and wire reports are already tickets.

A morning Storm Tracker for this calendar day is already on the site: Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning). This afternoon post is the watch-and-LSR update, not a reprint of Friday.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / NE Kansas, W / NC Oklahoma, E Texas Panhandle	Damaging wind 60–75 mph, isolated 1.5-inch hail	Slight + Watch 670 to 11 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Eastern Iowa / northern Illinois / northern Indiana	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Sunday morning
Southern / southeast Montana	Flash flood, 3–5 inch cores	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today into tonight
Central High Plains / NE Colorado	Wind, marginally severe hail	Slight / Marginal	Live LSRs near Byers and Matheson
Ohio Valley (IN / OH / IL outflow)	Isolated damaging gusts	Marginal, trimmed on north edge	Poorly organized
Southern Appalachians / Southeast	Trees, 50–60 mph wet microbursts	Marginal / local SVR	Just-hit trees in TN, AL, GA
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	TD Six near the Azores; no U.S. land threat	No mainland tropical watch	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph inside Watch 670 is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work from Wichita through Topeka and across northwest Oklahoma. Hail to 1.5 inches is a vehicle and roof-dent ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Midwest Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if occupied structures take water. Southern Montana is the same water problem on different terrain.

For teams in or near Watch 670: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Southeast tree jobs from this afternoon’s Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee cells are already on the board.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Six is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores with 35 mph winds and no coastal watches for the United States. The work tonight, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Iowa or Illinois cells train, isolated hail on the High Plains, leftover trees in the Tennessee Valley. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday’s SPC Day 2 outlook remains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central High Plains and southern Plains. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall eases the Midwest corridor to Slight. Day 3 convective risk is Marginal. Later in the week WPC language flags a wetter pattern for the Southern High Plains and Rockies, and a frontal system toward the East midweek. Watch the next Storm Tracker rather than assuming Watch 670 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Saturday, September 19, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670; Mesoscale Discussion 2309; SPC today’s local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Depression Six (Azores, no U.S. land threat). Morning desk on this calendar day: September 19 morning Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 670 text, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon and evening over parts of Idaho and Utah and a small part of the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2304 covers southern and central Idaho with a 20 percent chance of a watch. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is isolated hail and wind if cells verify over the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front, plus water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0247 PM CDT, valid 172000Z–181200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Weinman made no changes from the midday package. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday remains off the map.

Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 2059 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

MCD 2304, issued 0246 PM CDT and valid 1946Z–2215Z, covers parts of southern and central Idaho. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Probability of watch issuance: 20 percent. Summary: the risk of a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Most probable peak wind gust 55–70 mph. Most probable peak hail size 1.00–1.75 inches. Offices tagged: Pocatello, Missoula, Boise. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect; treat 2304 as the latest issued discussion, not a standing watch.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday still has two Slight Risk corridors. One is a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is aftermath, not a live upgrade.

Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

Morning water vapor showed an upper low over northern California with a band of strong flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs across Nevada into Utah and Idaho. Strong heating was expected to aid scattered thunderstorms from southern Idaho into northern Utah by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty or damaging winds. Coverage is limited. SPC still expects one or two severe cells later today, mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain. The 18Z Boise sounding in MCD 2304 sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongating, mostly straight hodograph with about 30–40 kt of cloud-layer shear. Cells first. Small clusters later if outflow organizes.

Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that owns this afternoon’s Utah cells.

Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Snake River Plain, Boise, Pocatello, or the Wasatch Front. Wind second if storms cluster. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity before the first warning, not after. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

Remnants of a weak tropical low tracked northeast across the Four Corners this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent support considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms over the Colorado mountains and southern Wyoming, spreading east into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska and Kansas. High-based convection poses a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Daytime heating is the limiter because of lingering cloud cover. That is the SPC Marginal overlay: isolated gusts, not a Slight Risk wind event.

WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona pivots through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 17/1200Z–18/1159Z cycle show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are still an afternoon and evening problem.

The last 24-hour ticket pile sits on the prior cycle (16/1200Z–17/1159Z): no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the same outlook family at 1300 UTC. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, adds MCD 2304, and confirms still-zero watches and still-zero LSRs on today’s cycle.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southern / central ID into northern UT	Isolated hail and severe gusts; possible small clusters	SPC Marginal; MCD 2304 watch unlikely	Live afternoon–evening cells
NE CO / western NE / High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon clusters if heating punches
WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end over SD)	Today’s organized water ticket
NM / E AZ / San Juans / Sacramentos	Flash flood, burn-scar debris flow	WPC Slight; leftover from Wed Moderate	Diurnal terrain cells
Western / north-central OH	Trees, wires, barn and roof damage	LSRs overnight; warnings expired	Just-hit
Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MO	Quarter to half-dollar hail	LSRs overnight	Just-hit / same offices own today’s risk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Isolated severe hail on the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Boise, Pocatello, Salt Lake, or Provo. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is still water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCD 2304 is watch-unlikely, not a watch. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an Idaho or Utah county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Friday, 1730 UTC package) holds Marginal Risk of isolated severe storms across parts of Idaho and Utah, Nebraska and Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia. Population centers listed on that outlook include Charlotte, Atlanta, Omaha, Lincoln, and Greensboro. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into the Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman); Mesoscale Discussion 2304 (Weinman/Hart); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260917 cycle and 20260916 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026; NWS warning text archive including Cleveland OH overnight products now expired.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 17, 2026