Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal
What Changed
- Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC / 2:54 PM CDT Monday, October 26, 2026, valid 262000Z–271200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated strong thunderstorms remain possible across far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, but organized severe potential is low. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently valid.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 27 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, October 26, valid 01Z–12Z October 27) holds a MARGINAL RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (footprint reduced) and the mid to lower Texas Coast from Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay. No Slight or higher.
- Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in west-central Chaves County, New Mexico, and portions of far west Texas / Texas Panhandle. Minor flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, weakening, moving west well south of Mexico) and Post-Tropical Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
- Nothing material moved to open a Slight or higher lane. Severe remains Quiet; flood remains Marginal. Quiet Pulse holds.
Live Status
As of this Monday afternoon desk, October 26, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT / 0414Z October 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through the remainder of the Day 1 period. Isolated thunderstorms continue along the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West Texas under modest instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) but limited effective shear (≤30 kt), keeping the severe threat isolated. No watches or MDs are in effect.
WPC holds only Marginal Risks. On the High Plains, scattered storms associated with a shortwave may produce localized heavy rain, especially near terrain or on already wet soils. Along the mid to lower Texas Coast, increasing precipitable water and southerly flow support potential for localized heavy amounts near the immediate coast, with isolated flooding possible in urbanized areas. No Moderate or higher ERO.
Hotspots
- Southeast New Mexico and far west Texas (Sacramento / Davis Mountains corridor): Residual isolated strong storms and active Flash Flood Warnings on sensitive terrain and saturated soils.
- Central and southern High Plains (Texas Panhandle into adjacent New Mexico/Kansas): WPC Marginal. Isolated training storms possible with localized 1–2 inches; flash-flood risk mainly on sensitive soils.
- Mid to lower Texas Coast (Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay): Marginal ERO. Localized heavy rain possible near the immediate coast with potential for isolated urban flooding.
Just-Hit
Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for west-central Chaves County, New Mexico. Additional Flash Flood Warnings for portions of far west Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Minor river flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas. No widespread severe local storm reports confirmed today beyond isolated strong cells. Localized road and low-lying flooding continues in the warned areas.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 27 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and Post-Tropical Olana (CPAC) far from U.S. land. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings. |
| Severe | Quiet | SPC Day 1 (2000Z Oct 26): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated storms possible far west TX/SE NM. No watches or MDs. |
| Flood | Marginal | WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk High Plains (reduced) + mid/lower Texas Coast. Active FFWs in NM/TX. No Moderate or higher. |
Restoration Read
Residual ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff on saturated soils, arroyos, small streams, urban corridors, and burn scars across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated strong storms may produce brief hail or gusty winds but no organized severe damage expected. Texas Coast carries a secondary urban flash-flood ticket under the Marginal. No widespread catastrophic damage. Monitor for lingering water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Residual flash-flood sensitivity may linger where soils remain saturated on the High Plains and Texas Coast, but the overall threat winds down overnight into early Tuesday. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
Sources
Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, 01Z update), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance / Post-Tropical Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.
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