Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet
What Changed
- Compared with the November 5 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet) and this morning’s earlier version: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 6 / 0700 PM CST Thursday November 5 2026 by Lyons, valid 060100Z–061200Z) continues “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Severe storms remain unlikely tonight. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC November 6 / discussion 725 PM EST November 5 by Bann, valid 01 UTC Nov 06–12 UTC Nov 06) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. Prior Marginal areas closed. No Moderate or higher.
- National Weather Service Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from late tonight through Saturday morning for potential 2–4 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts. Residual river Flood Warnings continue elsewhere (e.g., Missouri). High Wind and Freezing Spray Warnings in Alaska. No active flash flood warnings elevating the national Day 1 lane. Prior Georgia FFW remains expired.
- Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America as of 100 AM EST Friday November 6. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. A non-tropical low south of Bermuda continues with low-to-medium chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics while moving east; no U.S. land threat.
- Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC Day 1 or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Day 2 Outlook (1730 UTC November 5) holds Marginal Risk for eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia Friday, outside this Day 1 window. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible overnight from Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and Carolinas with the front, but no severe probabilities.
Live Status
As of the morning desk on Friday, November 6, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 9:15 PM PST November 5 / 05:15 UTC November 6), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.” Isolated thunderstorms are possible later tonight from the Mid-Atlantic region northward into southern New England and southward into the Carolinas ahead of a weak front, with strong winds aloft but limited near-surface buoyancy. No severe risk areas drawn. No watches currently valid. Homepage confirms Day 1 No Severe; Day 2 Marginal for eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
WPC Day 1 ERO confirms no excessive rainfall areas of note. Probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is under 5 percent nationally. Residual showers and thunderstorms may occur along the eastern front, but no organized flood threat on Day 1. NWS national products include the Flood Watch for MA/RI and routine marine and winter advisories elsewhere. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above Quiet.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~9:15 PM PST Nov 5 / 05:15 UTC Nov 6 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: no active systems. Non-tropical low south of Bermuda low/medium chance subtropical characteristics, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. |
| Severe | None | SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 6): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms unlikely tonight. No watches valid. Isolated non-severe storms possible Mid-Atlantic to Carolinas. Day 2 Marginal eastern Carolinas/SE VA. |
| Flood | Quiet | WPC Day 1 ERO: probability of exceeding flash flood guidance <5%. Prior Marginals closed. Flood Watch MA/RI for Friday into Saturday. Residual local Flood Warnings do not elevate national Day 1 lane. |
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable this run. No invented queries.
Restoration Read
No open restoration ticket. No organized severe wind, tornado, or widespread flooding indicated on current Day 1 products. Prior Southeast Marginal and north Georgia flash flood warning remain closed. Residual isolated thunderstorms may produce brief gusty winds or localized heavy rain overnight along the eastern front, but nothing at the level that drives a damage claim under Quiet Pulse criteria. Flood Watch for southeastern New England signals a Day 2 concern. Monitor routine weather.gov updates for any local evolution.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. Nothing at SPC Slight or above. No WPC ERO Moderate or above. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center.
Informational only — not an official warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.
Get The Signal
What we actually ran, what it measured, and what it means for a restoration shop — every week, including the flops.
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