Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 4 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

• Compared with the November 4 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-11-04-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal): Latest SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 5, issued 0657 PM CST Wednesday November 4, valid 050100Z–051200Z) continues a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. Isolated sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado remain possible this evening. No upgrade to Slight or higher. Prior Lower-to-Mid Mississippi Valley Marginal has shifted east and contracted further.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0053 UTC November 5 / discussion 759 PM EST November 4 by Chenard, valid 01 UTC Nov 05–12 UTC Nov 05) holds a Marginal Risk for portions of Southeast Florida, the Southern Appalachians, and a small area of Southeast Colorado. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight areas remain closed.
• National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for Fannin, Gilmer, northwestern Union, and Murray Counties in north-central Georgia until 3:00 AM EST Thursday November 5. Radar-indicated thunderstorms producing 1–2 inches per hour with additional 1–2 inches possible. Isolated flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, and roads ongoing or expected.
• No convective watches are currently valid. SPC confirms none as of late evening UTC November 4 / early November 5. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook notes a non-tropical low a few hundred miles south of Bermuda with 30% chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics in 48 hours and 50% in 7 days, moving slowly eastward; no U.S. threat.
• Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential remains in the Southeast Marginal; flood lane holds at Marginal with one active FFW in north Georgia.

As of the morning desk on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PST / 05:16 UTC November 5), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 5) states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.” Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible.

What Is Live

SPC Day 1 (0100Z November 5 / 6:57 PM CST by Lyons) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across portions of the Southeast. Evening radar and satellite show a band of predominately disorganized convection along and ahead of the cold front from eastern TN to south-central AL, with a more isolated cluster over eastern GA. Modest instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) and marginal deep-layer shear (30–35 kt) support occasional stronger updrafts, clusters, and transient supercells. Low-end risk for a brief tornado or damaging gust this evening. Storms should weaken as the environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the western Carolinas overnight. No watches or active mesoscale discussions elevating the threat beyond Marginal.

WPC Day 1 ERO maintains Marginal Risk for Southeast Florida (low-end, isolated heavy rates on saturated soils but reduced coverage expected), Southern Appalachians (training showers with embedded thunderstorms possible, terrain influence), and a small added Marginal in Southeast Colorado (slow-moving convection under upper low, localized 1–3 inches on wet antecedent conditions). Active Flash Flood Warning in north Georgia as noted. Residual concerns possible elsewhere but no higher risks.

No convective watches valid. NHC confirms no named tropical cyclones or U.S. coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.

Hotspots

Southeast (AL/GA/SC, east TN): Marginal severe risk for isolated wind gusts and a brief tornado this evening along the cold front and in shear-favorable zones. Overlaps with Marginal ERO in southern Appalachians and the active Flash Flood Warning in north-central Georgia for heavy rain rates.

Southeast Florida: Marginal ERO continues for any remaining isolated cells with heavy rates on multi-day saturated soils. Coverage expected lower than prior days; risk is highly localized.

Southeast Colorado: Small Marginal ERO for localized heavy rain from slow-moving convection this evening into overnight. Not widespread; minor flood impacts possible on wet ground.

Just-Hit

Flash Flood Warning active in north-central Georgia (Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Murray Counties) issued 8:55 PM EST November 4 for ongoing or imminent flash flooding from thunderstorms. Preliminary details limited; monitor local NWS for updates. No widespread severe reports elevated beyond the Marginal outlook as of desk time. Prior Mississippi Valley activity has shifted east.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:16 PM PST / 05:16 UTC Nov 5 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30%/50% chance for western/central Atlantic non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics over 48h/7 days, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 5): MARGINAL RISK portions of the Southeast. Isolated/sporadic wind/brief tornado possible. No watches valid. No reports received. Prior MS Valley Marginal shifted east and contracted.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Florida, S Appalachians, SE Colorado. Active FFW north-central GA until 3 AM EST Thursday. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight closed.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse with isolated severe potential and residual/localized flood concerns. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in north-central Georgia under the active Flash Flood Warning, plus any isolated wind or brief tornado damage in the Southeast Marginal Risk area. Southeast Florida residual urban flooding possible but downward-trending. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, and tree/wind damage. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

Looking Ahead One Day

Severe threat expected to diminish further as the front progresses eastward overnight into the Carolinas. Flood concerns remain localized and Marginal. Drier air building behind the system. No significant tropical development threatening U.S. land in the near term.

Rising Queries

tornado warning, flash flood warning Georgia, southeast storms, Florida rain, severe weather Southeast.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 5), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 759 PM EST November 4), National Weather Service (Flash Flood Warning north Georgia and watches/warnings summary), National Hurricane Center (Tropical Weather Outlook). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-04-afternoon.

Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.