Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with the prior afternoon desk pulse (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Outlook introduced then held a Marginal Risk. The 0100 UTC Oct 28 update (7:59 PM CDT) contracts the Marginal to a small portion of Far West Texas (~7,958 sq mi, population ~15,706 including Pecos TX). Previously broader SE NM into Far West TX. Isolated severe possible for a few more hours this evening before minimal overnight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0000 UTC Wed Oct 28, valid 01Z–12Z Wed Oct 28) remains probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas. Prior Marginal Risks have ended.
Residual Flood Warnings continue on the Rio Grande system and tributaries in New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Texas from prior multi-day rainfall. Saturated soils persist. Some earlier Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (e.g., Reeves and Jeff Davis Counties TX) verified isolated hail/wind but no widespread reports.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~40 mph, moving NW well offshore southwestern Mexico) poses no U.S. land threat.
Severe lane holds at Marginal with contraction and short-term focus; Flood remains Quiet. Residual river flooding is the primary lingering concern. Nothing material upgraded beyond Marginal.

Live Status

As of the Tuesday evening scan for the October 27 morning desk (approx. 04:12 UTC Oct 28 / 9:12 PM PDT Oct 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC places a Level 1 Marginal Risk over a small portion of Far West Texas for isolated severe thunderstorms for a few more hours this evening. A remaining storm or two could pose an isolated large hail threat before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Coverage is low. No convective watches or active Mesoscale Discussions. The severe threat becomes minimal for the remainder of the overnight period.

WPC confirms no Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Risk (probability <5%). Residual river Flood Warnings continue on the Rio Grande, Rio Puerco, Rio Chama, San Juan River, and related segments across NM, CO, UT, and TX due to prior multi-day rainfall and saturated soils. Coastal Flood Warnings exist in limited coastal areas (Florida Keys, northeast Florida, San Diego/Orange County) driven by onshore flow and high tides but fall outside main lanes. Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Warnings earlier this evening (Midland/Odessa for Reeves/Jeff Davis Counties) indicated hail to 1.5" and gusts to 60 mph, but no widespread LSRs.

Hotspots

Far West Texas: SPC Marginal (contracted). Isolated thunderstorms with large hail possible this evening near Pecos. Low population exposure and sparse coverage limit impacts. Threat winds down overnight.
Residual river flooding zones: Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events on the Rio Grande system and tributaries. Saturated soils elevate sensitivity for runoff in arroyos and low-lying areas.

Just-Hit

Minor to moderate river flooding continues on segments of the Rio Grande and tributaries. Earlier flash flood concerns have largely expired. Isolated severe thunderstorm activity produced localized hail and wind reports in Far West Texas this evening but nothing widespread. Localized water intrusion and road impacts remain possible on saturated ground. Turn around, don’t drown.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~04Z Oct 28 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC, ~40 mph, NW) far offshore SW Mexico, no U.S. threat. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk Far West TX (~8k sq mi). Isolated large hail possible for a few more hours this evening. No watches. Threat minimal overnight.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 ERO <5% (no risk). Residual Flood Warnings on Rio Grande system. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Primary residual ticket is localized river flooding impacts from prior heavy rain across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin, with saturated soils. Isolated large hail possible in the Marginal severe area of Far West TX could produce localized roof, vehicle, or window damage, but low coverage limits effects. No organized severe or excessive rainfall expected tonight. Monitor for lingering water intrusion and road closures in previously warned zones. Coastal flooding is tide-driven and secondary.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. SPC is only Marginal (not Slight or above). No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning. Always verify with weather.gov for your local area.

Looking Ahead

Wednesday Day 2: SPC Marginal severe risk potential over the Upper Mississippi Valley. WPC Day 2 Marginal excessive rainfall for east-central/southeast Florida. Day 3 may bring elevated rainfall risks into portions of Texas as remnant moisture interacts with shortwave features. Residual flood sensitivity lingers in the Southwest where soils remain wet.