Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Outlook updated at 0100 UTC Oct 28 (7:59 PM CDT Oct 27, valid 280100Z–281200Z) maintains a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms but contracts it to portions of Far West Texas only (approx. 7,958 sq mi, population ~15,706 including Pecos TX). Previously included southeast New Mexico. Isolated large hail possible for a few more hours this evening before the threat becomes minimal overnight with loss of heating.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0000 UTC Wed Oct 28, valid 01Z–12Z Wed Oct 28) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
No convective watches or current Mesoscale Discussions are valid. Earlier activity near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains has diminished. No new severe local storm reports elevating the day.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~40 mph, moving northwest offshore southwestern Mexico) poses no U.S. land threat.
Lanes unchanged overall. Severe remains Marginal (footprint reduced and short-term). Flood remains Quiet. Residual river Flood Warnings on the Rio Grande system and tributaries continue as the primary lingering concern.

Live Status

As of this Tuesday evening afternoon desk scan (approx. 04:14 UTC Oct 28 / 9:14 PM PDT Oct 27), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The latest SPC Day 1 places a Level 1 Marginal Risk over a small portion of Far West Texas for isolated severe thunderstorms for the next few hours this evening. A remaining storm or two could produce large hail before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Coverage stays low and population exposure is limited. No watches are in effect, and the overnight severe threat is minimal.

WPC holds no Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook risk areas. Residual Flood Warnings persist on elevated rivers from prior multi-day rainfall across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin, including segments of the Rio Grande, Rio Chama, and related tributaries in New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas. Saturated soils maintain localized sensitivity for runoff even without new heavy rain. Coastal Flood Warnings remain active in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida east coast and southern California from tides and onshore flow, outside the main convective/ERO lanes.

Hotspots

Far West Texas: SPC Marginal (contracted). Isolated thunderstorms with large hail possible near Pecos for a few more hours this evening. Low population exposure and sparse coverage limit impacts. No elevated tornado risk. Threat minimal overnight.
Residual Rio Grande and tributary river flooding (NM, CO, TX): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior heavy rain. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in arroyos, low-water crossings, and low-lying areas.
Coastal Florida and southern California: Coastal Flood Warnings and high rip current risks continue from onshore flow and high tides. Secondary concern only.

Just-Hit

Minor to moderate river flooding continues on Rio Grande system segments and related tributaries. Earlier convective activity in far West Texas and southeast New Mexico has largely diminished. No widespread damage reports. Localized water intrusion and road impacts remain possible on saturated ground. Turn around, don’t drown.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~04Z Oct 28 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC, ~40 mph, NW) far offshore SW Mexico, no U.S. threat. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 28) Marginal Risk Far West TX only (~8k sq mi). Isolated large hail possible a few more hours this evening. No watches or MDs. Threat minimal overnight.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 ERO <5% (no risk). Residual Flood Warnings on Rio Grande system. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Primary residual ticket remains localized river flooding and saturated-soil runoff impacts across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin. Isolated large hail in the short-term Marginal severe area of Far West Texas could cause limited roof, vehicle, or window damage, but low coverage keeps effects sparse. No organized severe or excessive rainfall expected tonight. Coastal flooding is tide-driven and secondary. Monitor previously warned zones for lingering water intrusion and road closures.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. SPC is only Marginal (not Slight or above). No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning. Always verify with weather.gov for your local area.

Looking Ahead

Wednesday Day 2: SPC Marginal severe risk over the Upper Mississippi Valley (conditional isolated hail/wind if heating occurs). WPC Day 2 Marginal excessive rainfall for east-central and southeast Florida. Day 3 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of West and Central Texas as remnant moisture from TS Vance is drawn northward—monitor closely, as organized convection on sensitive ground could elevate flash flood potential. Residual flood sensitivity lingers in the Southwest.