Tag: National Weather Service

  • Flash Flood Warning: Cibola County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Cibola County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    Live flash flood warning: Eastern Cibola County, New Mexico

    The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a Flash Flood Warning for eastern Cibola County in west central New Mexico, effective until 5:00 PM MDT on Saturday, September 19, 2026. This is the exact scenario restoration teams see most often on the interior flooding side of their business: fast water, short notice, and neighborhoods that flood before anyone gets a second phone call. This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:20 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    Laguna Pueblo — Flash Flood Warning

    Issued by NWS Albuquerque NM at 2:04 PM MDT on September 19, 2026, the warning expires at 5:00 PM MDT. Severity is rated Severe, with flooding Likely and an Immediate urgency — NWS places this among the most serious short-fuse categories it issues.

    At 2:04 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain over and near Laguna Pueblo, including Interstate 25. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have already fallen in the warned area, and additional amounts of 0.5 to 0.75 inches are possible. NWS states that flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. The warning source is radar indicated.

    Communities in the warned footprint include Laguna Pueblo, New Laguna, Mesita, and Paraje. The warning also explicitly covers Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 108 and 118 — drivers on that corridor should treat any water over the roadway as impassable.

    Expected impacts, per NWS: flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor-drainage and low-lying areas. This is high-desert country, which matters for how fast water moves — dry washes and arroyos can go from empty to violent in minutes on the kind of rainfall totals this warning reports.

    The VTEC identifier for this warning is /O.NEW.KABQ.FF.W.0159.260919T2004Z-260919T2300Z/. Check the alert directly through the NWS Albuquerque office page and the official alert source at api.weather.gov.

    Stay safe tonight

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Never drive through flooded roadways — water that looks shallow can hide a washed-out roadbed, and a stalled vehicle in a low-water crossing can become a rescue call in seconds. If you are on I-40 between mile markers 108 and 118 and encounter water across the highway, stop before the water, not in it.

    If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present, avoid the basement or lower level until water recedes and power is confirmed off, and photograph everything before cleanup — documentation matters for insurance. Then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting doesn’t wait for business hours; it starts a second wave of damage within a day as drywall wicks it upward and materials that look fine begin to swell and smell.

    If you smell natural gas, hear hissing, or see structural cracking, get out and call 911 rather than re-entering to retrieve belongings.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This is the Laguna Pueblo / I-40 corridor exposure, and it lines up with the bread-and-butter water job: interior water intrusion into homes and pueblo structures, saturated drywall and insulation where adobe and stucco exteriors take on wind-driven rain, and a mold window that opens within 24 to 48 hours if wet materials don’t get dried properly. Flash-flood jobs along a highway corridor also bring the underpass-and-low-grade commercial sites that call late — parking garages, roadside businesses, and drainage-adjacent storage.

    The play for New Mexico-area contractors: stage equipment now and pre-position drying assets before the warning expires at 5:00 PM MDT — crews that roll after the calls stack up lose the first wave. Keep an on-call rotation through the night, because water-intrusion discoveries keep coming as people get home from work and walk into wet carpet. On the first call, capture the essentials before anything else: address, water source (groundwater, roof intrusion, drainage backup), and the affected areas of the structure.

    Tribal-land access realities apply in and around Laguna Pueblo — respect access protocols, coordinate with whoever the homeowner points you to on site, and keep it simple and professional. Field discipline stays the same as anywhere else: photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts. In adobe and stucco construction especially, what looks like a dry surface can still hold deep moisture — meter readings before you close anything up, not after the truck rolls away.

    Local emergency contacts

    Cibola County Office of Emergency Management — the county’s emergency management office in Grants. Main line: 505-285-2558 (alternate 505-285-7944), per the New Mexico Office of Emergency Management county contact list. The county uses the Hyper-Reach notification system for emergency alerts — residents can call or text 505-209-8309 to enroll. For life-threatening emergencies, dial 911.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If this storm damages your home or business, the FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local, 7 days a week). You can also start at DisasterAssistance.gov, use the FEMA app, or visit fema.gov/drc to find disaster recovery centers. Basic eligibility: citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — you do not need to wait for cleanup to be finished.

    Looking ahead

    The warning expires at 5:00 PM MDT — but the end of the warning is not the end of the risk. Runoff in the high desert keeps moving after the rain stops: arroyos and small creeks can crest later in the evening, and saturated ground means any additional round of storms overnight floods faster than the first. Watch the sky and the NWS Albuquerque office page into the evening hours; the next update lands through the normal NWS alerting channels if conditions re-develop.

    For contractors, the demand window is worth planning around: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — the garage they don’t open until Monday, the guest room they don’t walk into until the weekend. First-call capture discipline tonight is what fills the schedule next week.

    Sources & how to verify

    This post is built entirely from the official NWS alert: the Flash Flood Warning issued by NWS Albuquerque and the NWS Albuquerque NM office page. To verify for your own county or ZIP code, go to weather.gov and enter your ZIP, or check your local NWS office page directly. Warnings move fast — never rely on this post alone for current conditions.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Sierra County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Sierra County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Sierra County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    The National Weather Service office in El Paso, Texas/Santa Teresa, New Mexico has issued a Flash Flood Warning for North Central Sierra County in south central New Mexico, effective until 5:00 PM MDT on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain, with up to 1.3 inches of rain already fallen and flash flooding ongoing or expected to begin shortly. For restoration teams in southern New Mexico, this is the exact interior-flooding job profile — arroyo-fed water in rural structures, saturated adobe and drywall, and a mold clock that starts ticking within a day.

    This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:20 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    North Central Sierra County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issuing office: NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM (https://www.weather.gov/epz/). Issued: 3:01 PM MDT, September 19, 2026. Expires: 5:00 PM MDT, September 19, 2026. VTEC code: /O.NEW.KEPZ.FF.W.0149.260919T2101Z-260919T2300Z/. Severity is listed as Severe, certainty Likely, urgency Immediate.

    What the radar shows: At 3:01 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 1.3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall of up to 1 inch is possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. The hazard source is radar indicated.

    Location in the path: Alamosa Canyon.

    Expected impacts, verbatim from the alert: flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

    Read the official alert text at the NWS API: https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c252334f25d5e15578c0656cb9ecd27dff12178c.001.1

    Stay safe during flash flooding

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Never attempt to drive through water covering a roadway — the depth is unknowable from the driver’s seat, and a foot of moving water can sweep a vehicle off the road.

    Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. In Sierra County, arroyos, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall. If you are near Alamosa Canyon or any dry wash, move to higher ground now and stay there until the warning expires.

    If water enters your home or building: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present — water and live electrical systems are a lethal combination. Avoid basements and low rooms until water recedes and power is confirmed off. Photograph everything before any cleanup begins — thorough documentation matters for insurance claims. Then call a local restoration contractor; water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day, and in the desert Southwest, wicking up adobe and stucco walls begins quickly.

    What this means for restoration teams

    A radar-indicated flash flood warning over rural Sierra County is the classic arroyo-driven interior water-intrusion profile. The mechanism here isn’t a river overflowing its banks — it’s fast-moving runoff from thunderstorms collecting in normally dry washes like Alamosa Canyon and spilling into low-lying structures. In rural south-central New Mexico, that means single-story adobe and stucco homes, older foundations without modern drainage, and dirt or gravel access roads that become impassable while the work order is still warm.

    Damage categories to expect: interior water intrusion at the slab line and through door thresholds; saturated adobe, stucco, drywall, and insulation along lower wall sections; water pushing under flooring and into crawl spaces. The mold clock runs 24 to 48 hours in this region — once water wicks into porous wall materials, drying assets need to be on site fast or the category of the loss escalates.

    The play: stage equipment now rather than waiting for the first call. Pre-position air movers and dehumidifiers, keep an on-call rotation running through the evening, and plan for the rural staging reality of Sierra County — crews traveling out from Truth or Consequences or Hatch face flooded low-water crossings and washouts that can double response times. Fuel up, confirm vehicle staging on high ground, and confirm which low crossings your route uses before dispatch.

    First-call capture: on the first call, capture three things every time — the service address, the water source (arroyo runoff, wash overflow, standing rainfall, or intrusion through a specific entry point), and the affected areas (rooms, wall sections, flooring types). That record drives the loss category, the drying plan, and the insurance documentation.

    Field discipline: photo-document every affected surface before mitigation begins, moisture-map every affected room rather than just the visibly wet ones, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts. In a rural county with limited contractor coverage, clear documentation and clear terms are what separate a clean claim from a disputed one.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If your home or business takes serious damage, federal help may be available after a disaster declaration. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply and check status at DisasterAssistance.gov, use the FEMA mobile app, or find a recovery center at fema.gov/drc.

    Basic eligibility requirements include U.S. citizenship or qualified non-citizen status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe to do so — you do not have to wait for the full extent of damage to be assessed.

    Looking ahead

    The warning runs through 5:00 PM MDT Saturday. When a flash flood warning expires, the hazard doesn’t always end with it — water moves downhill after the rain stops, so creeks and arroyos in Sierra County can keep running high into the evening even once the storms pass. Watch for additional thunderstorm rounds later today: the monsoon pattern in southern New Mexico can refire over the same terrain, and a second wave of rainfall onto saturated ground floods faster than the first.

    The next NWS updates will land through the El Paso/Santa Teresa office page and the regular NWS alert feed — check weather.gov and enter your county or ZIP code for the current status before traveling anywhere near the warned area tonight.

    The demand window: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — warped flooring, musty odors, wicking walls. Contractors serving Sierra County should expect the call volume to build through Saturday evening and into early next week.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP code, go to weather.gov and enter your location, or pull the current alerts feed from your local NWS office page.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Cochran County TX Area Until 6:15 PM CDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Cochran County TX Area Until 6:15 PM CDT

    A Flash Flood Warning is active for northeastern Cochran County in northwestern Texas, issued by NWS Lubbock TX at 4:12 PM CDT on September 19, 2026 and running through 6:15 PM CDT. This is the kind of warning that feeds interior water jobs: Doppler-indicated thunderstorms dropping heavy rain on ground that has already taken 1 to 2 inches, with another 1 to 2 inches possible before the warning expires. This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:20 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    Northeastern Cochran County — Flash Flood Warning

    The National Weather Service in Lubbock, Texas has issued a Flash Flood Warning for northeastern Cochran County, in northwestern Texas. The warning was issued at 4:12 PM CDT on September 19, 2026 and remains in effect until 6:15 PM CDT. Severity is rated Severe, with the flood event classified as Likely and the urgency Immediate.

    Here is the hazard detail, verbatim from the alert: At 4:12 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. Source: radar indicated. The VTEC tag reads /O.NEW.KLUB.FF.W.0059.260919T2112Z-260919T2315Z/.

    The locations named in the warning path are Morton and Lehman — the Morton/Lehman corridor in northeastern Cochran County is the focus area.

    Expected impacts, straight from the alert: flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. That list is familiar to anyone who has worked a High Plains event: urban street flooding where the grading sends water toward foundations, underpass and low-water-crossing trouble on the highways, and creeks and draws that rise fast on 1 to 2 inches of additional rain.

    The alert source is NWS Lubbock TX alert feed, and the issuing office page is weather.gov/lub. The NWS headline for this warning: “Flash Flood Warning issued September 19 at 4:12PM CDT until September 19 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Lubbock TX.”

    Stay safe through the evening

    The National Weather Service instruction on this warning is direct: “Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.” Do not drive across a flooded street or underpass in the Morton or Lehman area tonight — water depth on pavement is impossible to judge from the driver’s seat, and six inches of moving water is enough to knock an adult off their feet while a foot of water can move a vehicle.

    If water gets into your home, stay out of standing water where electricity may be present. Stay out of the basement until water recedes and the power is confirmed off. Photograph everything before any cleanup begins — room by room, waterlines on walls, damaged contents. Documentation matters for insurance, and photos taken before anything is moved carry the most weight. Once it is safe, call a local restoration contractor: water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day.

    The alert asks residents to report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request that they pass the information to the National Weather Service when it is safe to do so. Real-time reports sharpen the next round of warnings for the whole county.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This is the signature setup for the interior water jobs restoration contractors see most: heavy rain, radar-indicated, over ground already saturated by 1 to 2 inches, with another 1 to 2 inches possible before 6:15 PM CDT. The impacts NWS lists — small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, underpasses, poor drainage and low-lying areas — translate directly into the job tickets that start coming in once the water recedes.

    The play for the Morton/Lehman corridor: stage equipment now rather than after the phones start. Slab-on-grade homes and older properties along low-lying streets take water at the foundation line first — that means saturated drywall low on the walls, wet insulation in crawl spaces and wall cavities, and flooring that looks fine on top while the subfloor drinks it in. Underpass and street flooding sends sediment-laden water into garages and entry levels, which means Category 2 or Category 3 work depending on the water source — verify the source on the first call and document it, because it changes the entire mitigation plan.

    The mold clock matters in West Texas heat. Mold risk on wet porous materials typically develops within 24 to 48 hours of water sitting — that window is the difference between a clean dry-out and a job that grows a second problem. Crews should be ready to get standing water extracted and air movement started the same day, not the next.

    Field discipline for the calls that come in: photo-document everything before mitigation starts — waterlines, affected materials, the source path. Moisture-map every affected room, not just the one with visible water; water travels along base plates and under flooring to rooms that look dry. Capture the address, the water source, and the affected areas on the first call, because callbacks for “we found more” are expensive. And keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts — flood events draw a crowd of out-of-area outfits, and a clean scope agreement protects both sides.

    Demand window: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage behind walls and under floors. The low-lying areas and poor-drainage pockets around Morton are where the late discoveries happen — the calls on day three and four are the ones that catch a shop off-guard.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362, open 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time, seven days a week. You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA mobile app, or visit fema.gov/drc to find a Disaster Recovery Center near you.

    Basic eligibility: citizenship or qualified immigration status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — the application can be updated as the full scope of damage becomes clear.

    Looking ahead

    The warning expires at 6:15 PM CDT. When it lifts, the hazard does not end on a clock: creeks and draws can crest after the rain stops, and additional rounds of thunderstorms can trigger a new warning if the atmosphere reloads. Watch overnight for any extension or new issuance from NWS Lubbock, and check weather.gov/lub before any evening travel across the county.

    The next NWS update lands when conditions warrant — new warnings or extensions post to the same alert feed and the office page. For restoration operators, the demand note bears repeating: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage. Keep an on-call rotation through the morning and pre-position drying assets tonight so the first calls do not become missed calls.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP code, go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the active alerts box — or go straight to your local NWS office page for the latest warnings.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Jeff Davis County TX Area Until 4:45 PM CDT

    The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a Flash Flood Warning for east central Jeff Davis County in West Texas, in effect until 4:45 PM CDT this afternoon. This is the warning that remains in effect through the heart of the afternoon in the Davis Mountains country — radar-indicated thunderstorms dropping 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain already, with flash flooding ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    For restoration contractors in the Fort Davis corridor and across Jeff Davis County, this is exactly the setup that turns into interior water calls by tonight: saturated ground, hundreds of low-water crossings in hilly terrain, and camp properties in the flood path.

    This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:22 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    East Central Jeff Davis County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issuing office: NWS Midland/Odessa TX (weather.gov/maf). Issued: 3:07 PM CDT, September 19, 2026 (update). Expires: 4:45 PM CDT, September 19, 2026. Alert source: NWS alert. Severity: Severe. Certainty: Likely. Urgency: Immediate.

    NWS headline: “FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY”

    The hazard, verbatim: At 3:07 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    • HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
    • SOURCE: Radar indicated.
    • IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

    Locations that will experience flash flooding include: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp, Star Mountain and Black Mountain.

    VTEC: /O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0188.000000T0000Z-260919T2145Z/

    Stay safe in Jeff Davis County

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In the hilly terrain around the Davis Mountains there are hundreds of low-water crossings that are potentially dangerous in heavy rain — do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

    Flooding is occurring or is imminent. Know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks, which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks — and with Buffalo Trail Scout Camp in the warned area, camp staff should move people to high ground now and keep everyone clear of drainage channels until the warning expires.

    If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present, avoid the basement until water recedes and power is confirmed off, photograph everything before cleanup (documentation matters for insurance), then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This is the signature Jeff Davis County setup: a radar-indicated training event over the Davis Mountains dumping 1.5 to 2.5 inches in a few hours, with runoff funneled down canyon country into low-water crossings, ranch roads, and the buildings sitting in the drainage. The damage categories to expect tonight:

    • Interior water intrusion at properties in drainage paths near Star Mountain and Black Mountain — garage and first-floor intrusion where water sheets off slopes.
    • Saturated drywall and insulation in low-lying structures, with the musty smell showing up tomorrow even where water receded fast.
    • Mold risk within 24–48 hours if extraction and drying don’t start quickly — warm West Texas air plus wet building materials is mold’s favorite combination.
    • Camp-property exposure: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp sits in the warned area. Expect cabin and bunkhouse wet-downs, saturated bedding and contents, and muddy walkways that need attention before the next group arrives. Camp operators are time-pressured — a contractor who answers on the first call owns the job.
    • Debris and mud across access roads and low-water crossings that can strand equipment — stage on high ground and verify your route in.

    The play: stage extraction and drying equipment now, keep an on-call rotation through the evening, and pre-position in Fort Davis so you’re inside the response window. On the first call, capture address + water source + affected areas — the crews that document the source on call one get paid fastest. Photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If this event escalates into a declared disaster, the standard federal playbook applies. FEMA Helpline: 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local, 7 days). Apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc. Basic eligibility: citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe — don’t wait for the damage to finish revealing itself.

    Looking ahead

    This warning expires at 4:45 PM CDT. Overnight, watch for additional rounds of thunderstorms redeveloping over the Davis Mountains and creeks cresting later this evening even after rain stops — water keeps moving downhill after the sky clears. The next NWS update lands as conditions warrant; if flooding continues, expect an extension or a new warning cycle.

    The demand window: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — especially the “it looked fine yesterday” drywall that wicks moisture overnight. Contractors who run a visible on-call presence tonight and follow up with morning moisture checks convert this event into booked work through next week.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts tab — or go straight to your local NWS office page.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Jeff Davis County TX Area Until 4:45 PM CDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Jeff Davis County TX Area Until 4:45 PM CDT

    The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a Flash Flood Warning for east central Jeff Davis County in West Texas, in effect until 4:45 PM CDT this afternoon. This is the warning that remains in effect through the heart of the afternoon in the Davis Mountains country — radar-indicated thunderstorms dropping 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain already, with flash flooding ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    For restoration contractors in the Fort Davis corridor and across Jeff Davis County, this is exactly the setup that turns into interior water calls by tonight: saturated ground, hundreds of low-water crossings in hilly terrain, and camp properties in the flood path.

    This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:22 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    East Central Jeff Davis County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issuing office: NWS Midland/Odessa TX (weather.gov/maf). Issued: 3:07 PM CDT, September 19, 2026 (update). Expires: 4:45 PM CDT, September 19, 2026. Alert source: NWS alert. Severity: Severe. Certainty: Likely. Urgency: Immediate.

    NWS headline: “FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY”

    The hazard, verbatim: At 3:07 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    • HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
    • SOURCE: Radar indicated.
    • IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

    Locations that will experience flash flooding include: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp, Star Mountain and Black Mountain.

    VTEC: /O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0188.000000T0000Z-260919T2145Z/

    Stay safe in Jeff Davis County

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In the hilly terrain around the Davis Mountains there are hundreds of low-water crossings that are potentially dangerous in heavy rain — do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

    Flooding is occurring or is imminent. Know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks, which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks — and with Buffalo Trail Scout Camp in the warned area, camp staff should move people to high ground now and keep everyone clear of drainage channels until the warning expires.

    If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present, avoid the basement until water recedes and power is confirmed off, photograph everything before cleanup (documentation matters for insurance), then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This is the signature Jeff Davis County setup: a radar-indicated training event over the Davis Mountains dumping 1.5 to 2.5 inches in a few hours, with runoff funneled down canyon country into low-water crossings, ranch roads, and the buildings sitting in the drainage. The damage categories to expect tonight:

    • Interior water intrusion at properties in drainage paths near Star Mountain and Black Mountain — garage and first-floor intrusion where water sheets off slopes.
    • Saturated drywall and insulation in low-lying structures, with the musty smell showing up tomorrow even where water receded fast.
    • Mold risk within 24–48 hours if extraction and drying don’t start quickly — warm West Texas air plus wet building materials is mold’s favorite combination.
    • Camp-property exposure: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp sits in the warned area. Expect cabin and bunkhouse wet-downs, saturated bedding and contents, and muddy walkways that need attention before the next group arrives. Camp operators are time-pressured — a contractor who answers on the first call owns the job.
    • Debris and mud across access roads and low-water crossings that can strand equipment — stage on high ground and verify your route in.

    The play: stage extraction and drying equipment now, keep an on-call rotation through the evening, and pre-position in Fort Davis so you’re inside the response window. On the first call, capture address + water source + affected areas — the crews that document the source on call one get paid fastest. Photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If this event escalates into a declared disaster, the standard federal playbook applies. FEMA Helpline: 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local, 7 days). Apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc. Basic eligibility: citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe — don’t wait for the damage to finish revealing itself.

    Looking ahead

    This warning expires at 4:45 PM CDT. Overnight, watch for additional rounds of thunderstorms redeveloping over the Davis Mountains and creeks cresting later this evening even after rain stops — water keeps moving downhill after the sky clears. The next NWS update lands as conditions warrant; if flooding continues, expect an extension or a new warning cycle.

    The demand window: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — especially the “it looked fine yesterday” drywall that wicks moisture overnight. Contractors who run a visible on-call presence tonight and follow up with morning moisture checks convert this event into booked work through next week.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts tab — or go straight to your local NWS office page.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Southeastern Cibola County Until 4:45 PM MDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Southeastern Cibola County Until 4:45 PM MDT

    Status: Active as of 1:47 PM PDT (2:47 PM MDT), Saturday, September 19, 2026. The National Weather Service office in Albuquerque has updated its Flash Flood Warning for southeastern Cibola County, New Mexico — in effect until 4:45 PM MDT. This is a live snapshot: conditions change fast, so always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code before making decisions.

    This is an update to the warning NWS issued at 1:41 PM MDT south of Acoma Pueblo. The headline change: the thunderstorms producing the heavy rain have ended. Doppler radar now shows no additional rainfall expected — but the water already down does the flooding anyway. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen (up from the 1.25–1.75 inches in the original warning), and the NWS keeps the hazard wording at its strongest: life threatening flash flooding. Flooding impacts will continue.

    Southeastern Cibola County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issuing office: NWS Albuquerque, New Mexico (weather.gov/abq)
    Updated: Saturday, September 19 at 2:33 PM MDT
    Expires: Saturday, September 19 at 4:45 PM MDT
    Certainty: Likely · Urgency: Immediate · Severity: Severe

    Per the NWS alert, verbatim:

    At 233 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated that the thunderstorms producing heavy rain south of Acoma Pueblo had ended. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    HAZARD…Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

    Some locations that will experience flash flooding include… Mainly rural areas of Southeastern Cibola County.

    The NWS instruction for this warning is specific to the terrain: “In hilly or mountainous terrain there are numerous low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.”

    The physics here is worth understanding: a storm ends, and people assume the danger ended with it. It didn’t. Flash flooding on 1.5–2.5 inches over desert-hardened soil means runoff is still concentrating into creeks, arroyos, and low-water crossings — the water arrives after the rain. In southeastern Cibola County’s hilly terrain, that lag is exactly where vehicles get caught: a crossing that was fine when the sky cleared can be running hard twenty minutes later.

    Stay safe tonight

    The ended-rainfall trap is the headline safety message for this update: do not trust clearing skies at a low-water crossing. If a crossing is running, find an alternate route — never attempt to drive through. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles, and it only takes a few inches of fast-moving water to carry one away.

    If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present, avoid the basement until water recedes and power is confirmed off, and photograph everything before cleanup begins — documentation matters for insurance. Then call a local restoration contractor: water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day.

    The warning runs until 4:45 PM MDT, but creeks and crossings south of Acoma Pueblo stay dangerous after expiry. Give the water time to drain — hours, not minutes — before trusting any crossing in the warned area.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This update changes the operator picture in one specific way: the rain has ended but the flooding hasn’t. That profile produces a distinct call pattern:

    • Damage categories to expect: Interior water intrusion in low-lying homes, saturated drywall and insulation in ground-floor rooms, and sediment-laden water in structures near creeks and washes. Runoff over Cibola County’s hard desert soil carries silt and debris — mud inside a structure means contamination protocols, not just drying.
    • The demand window: Because the rain ended mid-afternoon while impacts continue into the evening, expect a split call curve: first calls this afternoon from people watching water rise, then a second wave this evening and tomorrow as rural property owners discover intrusion after the fact. Water-intrusion calls typically keep coming for days as damage is discovered.
    • Stage now: Keep an on-call rotation through the night. A warning expiring at 4:45 PM MDT with ended rainfall but ongoing flooding is exactly the profile that generates Saturday-evening homeowner calls — and rural response times in southeastern Cibola County are long, so pre-positioning toward the Acoma/Laguna corridor matters.
    • First-call capture: Get the address, the water source (creek overflow? wash runoff? direct intrusion?), and the affected areas on the first call. Ask whether water carried sediment into the structure — if it did, flag the job for contamination-scope pricing from the start.
    • Field discipline: Photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts.

    One more note from the warning’s own wording: the NWS calls this life threatening even with the rain ended. If your team is doing field work in the warned polygon, keep crews out of drainages and crossings until the warning expires and the water visibly recedes.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If your home or business took flood damage and your needs aren’t covered by insurance, FEMA assistance may apply once a disaster is declared. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA app, or find in-person help at fema.gov/drc.

    Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership of the damaged property, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe — document everything first.

    Looking ahead

    The warning expires at 4:45 PM MDT. The thing to watch after that: runoff lag. In hilly terrain with 1.5–2.5 inches fallen, creeks and low-water crossings can stay dangerous well into the evening even though the radar is quiet. If new storms fire later, NWS Albuquerque would issue fresh warnings; check the Albuquerque office page or weather.gov for your county.

    For restoration operators: this is the second Cibola County warning of the day (the first covered the Acoma sector at 1:41 PM MDT with rain ongoing). Multiple warnings on the same county in one afternoon concentrate demand on local contractors — if you serve the I-40 Grants–Acoma corridor, expect your phone to keep ringing tonight.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP: enter it at weather.gov or go straight to the Albuquerque office page for the latest warnings in the region.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Saturday, September 19, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down across the Carolinas and Upstate South Carolina, dumped 1.00–1.50-inch hail on the Utah Wasatch Front and Four Corners, and produced brief tornado or landspout reports near Fruit Heights and Uintah County, Utah. This morning the organized work is water: flash-flood warnings and just-hit rain of 3 to 7.5 inches in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, with a Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall still draped over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, plus a second Moderate pocket over southern Montana.

    The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains, valid 1300Z Saturday through 1200Z Sunday. Summary language: scattered severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening, focused on Kansas. No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was #0669, now expired. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific. A subtropical Atlantic disturbance near the Azores is not a U.S. land threat.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is interior water where overnight cores trained, then late-day Kansas wind and hail if the Slight Risk verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    No SPC severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is up at 12:23 UTC Saturday. Friday’s Carolina wind pulse and Utah/Four Corners convection are yesterday’s tickets now sitting as LSRs. What is still live is hydrologic: overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southern Fillmore County, Minnesota; Clayton and Fayette Counties, Iowa; and Dubuque, Jackson, Jo Daviess, and Stephenson Counties on the Iowa–Illinois line. La Crosse and Quad Cities language overnight cited 1–3 inches already down in the Iowa warnings and 3–7.5 inches in the Minnesota flood statements, with a mudslide reported on Highway 76 west of Caledonia and water over the road at Beaver Creek Valley State Park.

    Flood Watches remain through Sunday morning across portions of southwest and south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. A separate Flood Watch covers south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, through Sunday afternoon, including burn-scar flash-flood language. Heat Advisories continue into this evening over parts of southeast Kansas and central through southwest Missouri, with heat-index values near 100–105°F — that is a crew-safety overlay on the same Plains corridor that later gets the Slight Risk.

    Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)

    This is today’s new severe desk. The 1300Z outlook, issued 7:25 a.m. CDT by Smith/Mead, places a Slight Risk over parts of the central Plains. The 15-percent hail contour covers about 34,700 square miles and 1.33 million people, with larger centers listed as Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, and Manhattan. The 15-percent wind contour is a bit larger and also takes in St. Joseph, Missouri. A categorical intensity-level-1 wind overlay (60–75 mph gusts) sits where HREF guidance, precipitable water, and steep low-level lapse rates overlap. A 5-percent wind area fans out as far as Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta — that is the isolated-gust envelope, not the Slight Risk core.

    A cold front still runs west-southwest to east-northeast from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and will ease south. Seasonably moist air ahead of it over Kansas, Missouri, and northwestern Oklahoma should become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon. Storms are expected late afternoon into early evening as CIN erodes. Steep 0–3 km lapse rates (8.5–9.5°C/km) favor vigorous cores and evaporative cooling. A few short-lived supercells are possible in the Kansas vicinity given adequate speed and directional shear. Large hail rides with the stronger updrafts. The threat should diminish during the evening.

    Farther west, models still build storms near and east of I-25 this afternoon, then grow a loosely organized band — including some supercells — into a linear cluster crossing eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Fifteen-percent wind probabilities were added over eastern Colorado for that mode. Low severe-wind probabilities continue into western Kansas late evening if the cluster holds together.

    Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and the I-70 / I-35 corridor in Kansas; St. Joseph and the western Missouri fringe; eastern Colorado Front Range and High Plains east of I-25; Amarillo and Enid sit in the broader wind-probability field but are not the Slight Risk bullseye.

    Restoration read: stage tarps and glass/roof kits for late afternoon, not after the first warning. Hail on the 15-percent contour is vehicle and shingle work. Wind at 60–75 mph is trees on service drops and isolated roof peel. Do not let the Heat Advisory talk you out of hydration and early staging — that air mass is the same one feeding the storms.

    Hotspot 2 — Midwest Moderate excessive rainfall (already hitting)

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0844 UTC Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of the Midwest, particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. That is the same corridor that took overnight Flash Flood Warnings. Additional 1–2 inches were still possible in the Iowa–Illinois warnings as of 4:19–5:54 a.m. CDT. Flood Watches through Sunday morning over southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio keep the water story open after the current warnings expire.

    Southeastern Minnesota is the just-hit core: 4–7.5 inches in Fillmore and Mower Counties with flooding on Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson, water over County 57 / Minnesota 56, trees washed onto Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and I-90 between mile markers 193 and 204 in the statement footprint. Houston County statements cited 5–7 inches and a mudslide west of Caledonia. Those are extraction and roadway-closure jobs already on the books.

    River flooding leftover from earlier in the week still sits on the Saint Marys and Wabash in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, with moderate flooding forecast near Decatur and Fort Wayne. That is channel water, not this morning’s flash-flood cores.

    Restoration read: Minnesota–northeast Iowa–northwest Illinois is today’s water ticket. Photograph interiors in remaining daylight only if it is safe. The Moderate Risk means another training band can reload the same ZIPs this afternoon. Do not send the Kansas hail crew and the Dubuque water crew as one story.

    Hotspot 3 — Southern Montana Moderate flood + High Plains leftover wind

    WPC upgraded parts of southern Montana to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. Discussion cited anomalously high moisture, a slow-moving mid-upper low, and deterministic QPF near 3.5 inches with high-end CAM scenarios of localized 7–8 inches if instability verifies. NWS Billings holds a Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for all of south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, with explicit burn-scar flash-flood language. A separate Flood Watch covers a slice of northeast Montana (Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, Wibaux).

    Overnight High Plains wind already verified on the west side of this pattern: 66 mph near Burlington, Colorado; 67 mph southeast of Evansville, Wyoming; 63 mph northwest of Ruleton, Kansas; 69 mph north-northwest of McDonald, Kansas; 64 mph north of Hastings, Nebraska; trees and snapped poles in Cheyenne County, Kansas. Those are Friday night LSRs, not a live watch.

    Restoration read: Montana is a flood-and-burn-scar desk, not a wind desk. High Plains wind damage from last night is already on the ground in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Today’s new wind threat there is the late-day cluster coming off the Front Range.

    Just hit

    Friday’s Carolinas–Georgia Marginal Risk verified as a wind pulse. Official LSRs include a 69 mph gust at Greensboro (GSO) and 66 mph at Fayetteville (KFAY), plus a long string of trees and wires down from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, Moore, Johnston, Wake, Cumberland, Harnett, Catawba, and Pender Counties in North Carolina into York, Spartanburg, Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson Counties in South Carolina. Shingles and siding damage was reported west-southwest of Statesville. A landspout lofted debris at Lighthouse Point, Broward County, Florida, mid-afternoon Friday. That is a local Florida ticket, not the national headline.

    Utah and the Four Corners took the hail and brief-tornado reports: 1.50-inch hail at Kaysville and west of Farmington, Davis County; 1.00-inch hail at Farmington, New Mexico, and Dinosaur / Massadona, Moffat County, Colorado; a tornado report near Fruit Heights, Davis County, from video showing rotation and lofted debris; a landspout report 15 miles east-southeast of Naples, Uintah County. Those cells are down. The work is already there.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Central / eastern KansasSevere wind 60–75 mph, large hail, short-lived supercellsSPC Slight (1300Z)Outlook only — no watch yet
    Eastern CO into western KSDamaging gusts as storms go linear15% wind / isolated severeLate afternoon–evening
    E Iowa / N Illinois / N IndianaFlash flood, training rainWPC Moderate EROLive overnight FFWs; risk continues
    SE Minnesota (Fillmore, Houston, Mower)Just-hit 4–7.5″ rain, roads, mudslideFFW / flood warning overnightAftermath + residual water
    SW MI / N IN / NW OHAdditional flooding possibleFlood Watch through Sunday morningWatch live
    Southern / SE Montana + Sheridan WYHeavy rain, burn-scar flash floodWPC Moderate + Flood WatchToday into Sunday
    Carolinas / Upstate SCTrees, wires, 66–69 mph gustsFriday Marginal — verifiedJust hit / cleanup
    Wasatch Front / Four Corners1.00–1.50″ hail, brief tornado/landspout reportsFriday convectionJust hit
    Ohio Valley / southern Appalachians / SoutheastIsolated 50–60 mph gustsSPC 5% wind / local SVR possibleAfternoon scatter
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cyclone threatening landNHC: no TCsQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Water is the morning job. Minnesota and the Iowa–Illinois line already have interior and roadway flooding from overnight cores. A Moderate ERO means those same counties can take another round. Kansas is the afternoon job: hail and 60–75 mph wind if the Slight Risk fires on schedule. Montana is a separate flood-and-burn-scar desk with a multi-day watch. Carolina wind and Utah hail are Friday night tickets still waiting on adjusters.

    For teams on the Kansas Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Heat-index values near 100–105°F on the Missouri–southeast Kansas Advisory are a crew-safety constraint, not a reason to ignore the outlook.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up as of mid-morning UTC Saturday. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail and wind swath through a Kansas county, another flooded intersection where Iowa or northern Illinois cells train, burn-scar runoff in southern Montana, leftover trees in the Carolinas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 remains a Slight Risk. WPC Day 2 eases the Midwest and Ohio Valley to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall as the axis slides east. Flood Watches in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Montana run through Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the overnight Minnesota warnings were the last water of the weekend.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0725 AM CDT); SPC Current Watches page updated 12:23 UTC Saturday (no watches valid; last watch #0669); SPC Local Storm Reports for 18/1200Z–19/1159Z; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0844 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text from La Crosse, Quad Cities, Northern Indiana, Billings, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Saturday (no tropical cyclones; Azores disturbance is not a U.S. land threat).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 18 storm updates (afternoon).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Carolinas Wind Pulse + Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026

    This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 18, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia, northern Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale discussions referenced in the 2000 UTC package (MCDs 2306 and 2307) are no longer in effect. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second Slight Risk over southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind and trees already verifying across central North Carolina, isolated hail leftover from Intermountain cells, and water tonight from southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0241 PM CDT, valid 182000Z–191200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Wendt made only minor adjustments from the midday package. Headline: an isolated severe risk continues for portions of the Carolinas into northern Georgia and parts of the Intermountain West. Isolated severe storms are also forecast later today across portions of northern Iowa and parts of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Charlotte, Atlanta, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Durham. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk on Day 1. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC categorical headline. Risk-area size on the 2000 UTC graphic is about 179,316 square miles covering roughly 19.6 million people.

    Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 1805 UTC Friday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    The 2000 UTC discussion points to MCDs 2306 and 2307 for additional information. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Most recently issued discussion on the current-MD page was 2305. Treat those numbers as the latest issued discussions, not standing watches.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 16Z Friday through 12Z Saturday holds Slight Risk for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. The 16Z update expanded the eastern edge of the Slight and high-end Slight about one to two counties into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois, where recent heavy rain left the ground sensitive. Highest amounts still focus over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with model-consensus QPF in the 2 to 4 inch range. A separate Slight Risk covers southwest Montana. Marginal Risk remains over South Florida and the Keys, a remnant Intermountain/Southwest terrain corridor, a Northern Plains strip, and a thin Ohio Valley pocket. WPC’s short-range discussion already flags a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. That is tomorrow’s water upgrade, not today’s Day 1 map.

    Hotspot 1 — Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia

    A wavy stationary front this morning ran from southern Illinois through southern Indiana and southern Ohio into southwest Pennsylvania. Decaying showers preceded it from southern Illinois into northern Kentucky. The boundary is shifting south as cooler air follows a shortwave through southern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. The front is relatively weak, but it is interacting with a warm, moist, diurnally destabilized airmass across the Carolina Piedmont and northern Georgia. Precipitable water is over 2 inches. Vertical shear is weak. Storm mode is outflow-dominant. The risk is occasionally strong downbursts, not a long-lived supercell corridor.

    That language already verified this afternoon. Preliminary LSRs on the 18/1200Z cycle include a 69 mph gust at KGSO (5 ESE Colfax, Guilford County), a 66 mph gust at KFAY (4 ENE Hope Mills, Cumberland County), trees down on I-85 near Route 68, trees blocking roads in Randolph, Davie, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, and a power-company outage from downed trees northwest of Craven in Rowan County. Those are trees-on-pavement and trees-on-wires tickets in the Charlotte–Greensboro–Fayetteville corridor, not a watch-scale outbreak.

    Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree, tarp, and board-up capacity for the Piedmont counties that already have LSRs. Hail is not the lead threat on this corridor. Water is secondary unless a cell trains over the same ZIP that already took a 2-inch precipitable-water plume.

    Hotspot 2 — Upper Mississippi Valley water

    A Northern Plains disturbance continues east from the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. WPC keeps the Slight Risk and high-end Slight focused on southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with the eastern edge nudged into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois because those counties already took rain. Local NWS language from La Crosse this afternoon still has 1–3 inches likely and 4–6 inches possible in pockets, with a Flood Watch south of I-94 and rivers such as the Kickapoo at Gays Mills and Viola and the Cedar at Charles City expected to reach minor flood stage if the heavier corridor verifies.

    SPC’s northern Iowa Marginal is a separate overlay: elevated storms tonight on warm-air advection and a moderate low-level jet, with isolated hail the primary severe hazard and a strong gust or two if any linear structures develop. That is hail and wind on the southern edge of the water corridor, not a Slight Risk severe day.

    Restoration read: water first from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin into northeast Iowa tonight. Extraction and wet-drywall clocks start the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to a Piedmont tree job and a Kickapoo basement without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

    A shortwave trough continues east into southern Idaho and northern Utah. Highs stay relatively cool — upper 60s in southern Idaho, low to mid 70s in northern Utah — but cold temperatures aloft plus strong deep-layer shear still support organized updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and small hail remain the SPC language. That already verified on today’s LSR cycle: 1.50-inch hail 2 W of Kaysville in Davis County, Utah, and quarter-size hail near Farmington in San Juan County, New Mexico.

    On the High Plains, a mid-level vorticity maximum lifting north-northeast later this evening may support isolated severe gusts and a conditional, less-than-5-percent hail risk if a more cellular mode holds into better low-level moisture near the Colorado–Nebraska–Kansas border. Storms may grow upscale into a small eastward-moving cluster this evening. Isolated outflow surges, not a derecho.

    Restoration read: hail first if cells verify over the Wasatch Front or the Four Corners. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated except for the separate southwest Montana Slight Risk, where WPC introduced Slight coverage after Thursday’s cell behavior and 0.5–1.5 inch guidance.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 18/1200Z–19/1159Z cycle already include one brief landspout at Lighthouse Point in Broward County, Florida (palm fronds lofted; no damage path described as a supercell tornado), quarter to 1.50-inch hail in San Juan County, New Mexico, and Davis County, Utah, and a long list of North Carolina wind reports from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Cumberland, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, including measured 69 mph at Greensboro and 66 mph at Fayetteville.

    The last 24-hour ticket pile on the prior cycle (17/1200Z–18/1159Z) is the Idaho hail outbreak the morning desk already logged: tennis-ball hail (2.50 inches) near Rose in Bingham County, golf-ball hail in Blackfoot and Shelley, quarter to 1.25-inch hail across Bingham, Blaine, Jefferson, and Bear Lake counties, plus 1.50-inch hail at Midway, Wasatch County, Utah, and 1.50-inch hail near Broadwater, Morrill County, Nebraska. Wind on that cycle included power lines down at Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; a 61 mph gust south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees in Beavercreek, Greene County, Ohio; a tree-fall injury in Ashland, Boyd County, Kentucky; and trees in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana. A brief tornado touchdown was reported 11 NNE of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska. Those products are expired. The roofs and cars in Bingham County are still the ticket.

    This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the 1300 UTC outlook family. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, confirms still-zero watches, and adds the live North Carolina LSR cluster and the WPC 16Z flood-edge nudge into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    Carolina Piedmont / northern GADownburst wind, trees, wiresSPC MarginalLive — LSRs already in
    SE MN / west-central WI / NE IAFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC Slight (high-end core)Tonight’s organized water ticket
    Northern Iowa / far southern MNIsolated hail, isolated gustsSPC MarginalElevated storms tonight
    Southern ID / northern UT / Four CornersIsolated hail and severe gustsSPC MarginalLive cells; 1.50″ hail at Kaysville
    Central High PlainsIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalEvening cluster if heating holds
    Southwest MontanaFlash flood, 0.5–1.5″WPC SlightDiurnal terrain cells
    South Florida / KeysUrban flooding, landspout noiseWPC MarginalDiurnal; one brief landspout LSR
    Bingham County ID (overnight)Tennis-ball to golf-ball hailLSRs prior cycleJust-hit
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    The live ticket this afternoon is wind on the Carolina Piedmont: trees, wires, and a measured 66–69 mph pair at Greensboro and Fayetteville. Isolated Intermountain hail is a roof and auto-glass survey if cells keep firing over the Wasatch Front or Farmington, New Mexico. The organized ticket tonight is still water from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin. Idaho’s overnight tennis-ball hail around Blackfoot, Rose, and Shelley is a separate just-hit staffing problem from this afternoon’s Piedmont wind.

    For teams near the Carolina Marginal: the warnings and LSRs are already out. Photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on Upper Mississippi and Montana washes.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCDs 2306 and 2307 are not watches. The Broward landspout is a brief landspout LSR, not a tornado outbreak. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it keeps verifying, will be scattered: a tree swath through a Piedmont county, a hail report on the Wasatch Front, and heavier rain over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Saturday) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast. The 1730 UTC Day 2 summary calls for scattered severe wind and hail-producing storms on the central Plains. WPC already has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, any new watches, and whether that Moderate flood risk is the morning headline rather than assuming today’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Wendt); Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); current mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260918 cycle and 20260917 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Campbell, 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 18, 2026); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 18, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Friday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Friday, September 18, 2026. Overnight convection dumped tennis-ball hail on Bingham County, Idaho, knocked power lines down near Lewisville, and forced National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls and Rexburg areas that expired before dawn. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, across Iowa, over parts of the central High Plains, and again in the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover hail and interior water in eastern Idaho, isolated damaging gusts on the Carolina Piedmont and in Iowa this afternoon, and training rain from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0719 AM CDT. Valid 181300Z–191200Z. Headline: an isolated severe risk later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. Categorical risk is Marginal over about 171,000 square miles and roughly 21 million people. Wind is the shared 5 percent contour. A 2 percent tornado contour sits over north-central Iowa (Ames, Ankeny, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown). A 5 percent hail contour remains over the Salt Lake City–Provo corridor.

    No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is in effect. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Watch 669, already expired. Today’s 1200 UTC–onward local storm report page is empty as of this desk: no tornado, hail, or wind reports on the new cycle yet. Last night’s work is on the September 17 cycle.

    WPC’s 1034 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over the Upper Mississippi Valley (southern Minnesota into Wisconsin and adjacent Iowa/Illinois) and a separate Slight over southwest Montana. Marginal flood pockets cover leftover Southwest terrain, the northern High Plains, South Florida and the Keys, a Midwest/Great Lakes corridor, and the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance still supports 2 to 4 inches in the better Upper Midwest swath.

    The National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Atlantic outlook and companion eastern and central Pacific outlooks list no tropical cyclones. That sentence stays off the restoration board unless NHC names something that threatens U.S. land.

    Overnight into this morning

    Thursday’s SPC report cycle (1200 UTC September 17 through 1159 UTC September 18) is the just-hit file. One brief tornado was reported 11 miles north-northeast of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska, around 0034 UTC. Hail clustered on eastern Idaho: 1.00 to 1.75 inches around Blackfoot, Shelley, Firth, Moreland, and Menan; 2.50 inches (tennis ball) one mile north-northeast of Rose in Bingham County; 1.25 inches at Gannett in Blaine County; 1.00 inch east of Alton in Bear Lake County. Utah added 1.50 inches at Midway in Wasatch County. Nebraska High Plains added 1.50 inches east-southeast of Broadwater. Missouri picked up 1.00 inch near Saint Paul in St. Charles County.

    Wind: power lines down in Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; 61 mph at the INL rover south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees and shingles near Saint Paul, Missouri; a 59 mph gust at Truth or Consequences, New Mexico; trees down in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana; a large tree on Yalta Drive in Beavercreek, Ohio; several large trees in Ashland, Kentucky, with one person injured and transported when a tree fell. Overnight flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls area (until 2:00 AM MDT) and the Rexburg area (until 2:45 AM MDT) have expired. Those were water jobs on eastern Idaho drainages after the same hail cores, not a new watch this morning.

    Hotspot 1 — Carolinas into northern Georgia

    A cluster of weak thunderstorms this morning over Kentucky and West Virginia rides south on northerly flow around a mid-level high over the Ark-La-Tex. SPC expects rejuvenation near convective outflow along the Virginia–North Carolina border, then scattered storms over the Piedmont into northern Georgia as the boundary layer heats. Isolated 50–60 mph gusts are the advertised threat. Cities inside the Marginal contour include Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Atlanta.

    Restoration read: wind first, not a tornado outbreak. Stage tarps and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. This is a scatter of cores, not a watch-boxed line.

    Hotspot 2 — Iowa and the Upper Mississippi Valley

    A front lies from the lower Ohio Valley west into the mid Missouri Valley, with a weak surface low over western Nebraska. Lower-70s dewpoints sit south of the boundary. SPC favors thunderstorms over Iowa into far southern Minnesota where heating and low-level forcing erode inhibition. Primary hazard is marginally severe gusts. Enlarged hodographs near the warm front leave a localized chance of a couple of weak, short-lived supercells — that is the 2 percent tornado contour, not a Slight Risk upgrade. Upscale growth late evening would drift toward the southwest Great Lakes and lose buoyancy.

    WPC’s Slight Risk is the organized water ticket. A disturbance tracking out of the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin can support 2–4 inches where the low-level jet blossoms the rain shield. That is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock in the better swaths, not a river-flood headline yet.

    Restoration read: Iowa wind this afternoon, Minnesota–Wisconsin water tonight. Do not staff both with the same crew without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

    A mid-level trough crosses the Intermountain West. Dewpoints in the 50s from northern Utah into western Wyoming valleys, MLCAPE 1000–1200 J/kg, and moderate shear support isolated severe gusts and hail again late afternoon and evening — the same corridor that just put tennis-ball hail on Bingham County. On the High Plains, a vorticity maximum over New Mexico may help isolated storms grow into a small eastward cluster over eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, with isolated severe gusts on outflow.

    Southwest Montana sits under WPC’s second Slight Risk after Thursday’s cell behavior and ensemble 2-inch QPF. Rates can still beat flash-flood guidance even if storms stay progressive. Residual Marginal flood language covers New Mexico and Arizona terrain for one more diurnal cycle.

    Just hit

    Eastern Idaho hail, the expired Idaho Falls and Rexburg flash-flood warnings, the Garden County brief tornado, and the Ashland, Kentucky tree injury are yesterday’s tickets. Thursday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already carried the Idaho–Utah Marginal and Dakotas flood Slight on the prior Day 1 package. This morning desk moves the live outlook east onto the Carolinas and Iowa and slides the flood Slight onto the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Carolinas / northern GAIsolated 50–60 mph gustsSPC MarginalAfternoon–evening cells
    Iowa / southern MNGusts; localized brief tornadoSPC Marginal; 2% tornadoAfternoon into evening
    Southern MN / WI / adjacent IA–ILFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC SlightToday’s organized water ticket
    Northern UT / ID / WY valleysIsolated hail and severe gustsSPC Marginal (5% hail UT)Late afternoon–evening
    E CO / SW NE / NW KSIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalEvening cluster possible
    Southwest MontanaFlash flood on progressive cellsWPC SlightAfternoon–evening
    Bingham / Jefferson / Madison IDHail, wires, expired FFWsAftermathJust-hit desk
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling cycloneNHC quietQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Idaho hail is already on cars, windows, and roofs in Bingham County. That is same-day emergency board-up and a multi-day supplement fight, not a forecast. Carolina and Iowa wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work if cores verify. Upper Mississippi Valley rain is extraction and drying if 2–4 inch swaths land on saturated ground. A 2 percent tornado contour is a narrow, short-lived threat — staff it as a local damage survey if a warning verifies, not as a regional event.

    For teams near Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Des Moines, Ames, or the Salt Lake valley: stage before peak heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk convective day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind-damaged street on the Piedmont, a brief spin-up near an Iowa warm front, another hail core in a Utah or Idaho valley, a flooded underpass in southern Minnesota or Wisconsin. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Saturday’s Day 2 outlook is already a Slight Risk of scattered severe wind and hail over portions of the central Plains, with isolated severe storms possible from the High Plains and central Rockies into the Midwest and Southeast. Sunday is Marginal. Day 4–8 has no 15 percent areas. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker for the 1630 UTC Day 1 update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the weekend.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead); SPC current watches page (none valid; last watch 669); SPC local storm reports for 20260917 and 20260918; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 1034 UTC Friday; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook; National Weather Service Pocatello flash-flood warning text for Idaho Falls and Rexburg, now expired.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight. Related overnight posts: Idaho Falls flash-flood warning and Rexburg flash-flood warning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026

    This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon and evening over parts of Idaho and Utah and a small part of the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2304 covers southern and central Idaho with a 20 percent chance of a watch. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is isolated hail and wind if cells verify over the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front, plus water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0247 PM CDT, valid 172000Z–181200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Weinman made no changes from the midday package. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday remains off the map.

    Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 2059 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    MCD 2304, issued 0246 PM CDT and valid 1946Z–2215Z, covers parts of southern and central Idaho. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Probability of watch issuance: 20 percent. Summary: the risk of a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Most probable peak wind gust 55–70 mph. Most probable peak hail size 1.00–1.75 inches. Offices tagged: Pocatello, Missoula, Boise. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect; treat 2304 as the latest issued discussion, not a standing watch.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday still has two Slight Risk corridors. One is a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is aftermath, not a live upgrade.

    Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

    Morning water vapor showed an upper low over northern California with a band of strong flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs across Nevada into Utah and Idaho. Strong heating was expected to aid scattered thunderstorms from southern Idaho into northern Utah by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty or damaging winds. Coverage is limited. SPC still expects one or two severe cells later today, mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain. The 18Z Boise sounding in MCD 2304 sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongating, mostly straight hodograph with about 30–40 kt of cloud-layer shear. Cells first. Small clusters later if outflow organizes.

    Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that owns this afternoon’s Utah cells.

    Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Snake River Plain, Boise, Pocatello, or the Wasatch Front. Wind second if storms cluster. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity before the first warning, not after. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

    Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

    Remnants of a weak tropical low tracked northeast across the Four Corners this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent support considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms over the Colorado mountains and southern Wyoming, spreading east into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska and Kansas. High-based convection poses a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Daytime heating is the limiter because of lingering cloud cover. That is the SPC Marginal overlay: isolated gusts, not a Slight Risk wind event.

    WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona pivots through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

    Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

    The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

    Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 17/1200Z–18/1159Z cycle show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are still an afternoon and evening problem.

    The last 24-hour ticket pile sits on the prior cycle (16/1200Z–17/1159Z): no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

    This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the same outlook family at 1300 UTC. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, adds MCD 2304, and confirms still-zero watches and still-zero LSRs on today’s cycle.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    Southern / central ID into northern UTIsolated hail and severe gusts; possible small clustersSPC Marginal; MCD 2304 watch unlikelyLive afternoon–evening cells
    NE CO / western NE / High PlainsIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalLate afternoon clusters if heating punches
    WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IAFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC Slight (high-end over SD)Today’s organized water ticket
    NM / E AZ / San Juans / SacramentosFlash flood, burn-scar debris flowWPC Slight; leftover from Wed ModerateDiurnal terrain cells
    Western / north-central OHTrees, wires, barn and roof damageLSRs overnight; warnings expiredJust-hit
    Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MOQuarter to half-dollar hailLSRs overnightJust-hit / same offices own today’s risk
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Isolated severe hail on the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Boise, Pocatello, Salt Lake, or Provo. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is still water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

    For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCD 2304 is watch-unlikely, not a watch. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an Idaho or Utah county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Friday, 1730 UTC package) holds Marginal Risk of isolated severe storms across parts of Idaho and Utah, Nebraska and Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia. Population centers listed on that outlook include Charlotte, Atlanta, Omaha, Lincoln, and Greensboro. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into the Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman); Mesoscale Discussion 2304 (Weinman/Hart); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260917 cycle and 20260916 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026; NWS warning text archive including Cleveland OH overnight products now expired.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.