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Tag: Mortgage Rates

  • Snohomish County’s April 2026 Housing Market Has a Number Most Reports Miss: Sales Activity Intensity at 54.9%

    Snohomish County’s April 2026 Housing Market Has a Number Most Reports Miss: Sales Activity Intensity at 54.9%

    What’s the headline number from the Madrona Group’s April 2026 Snohomish County housing report? Sales Activity Intensity came in at 54.9%, down only slightly from 56.0% the month before — meaning more than half of all listings still went pending within the first 30 days. Inventory tightened to 1.6 months. Mortgage rates moved up to 6.45%. Single-family resale prices held near $877,000 with homes selling at 99.8% of list price. The market did not slow down the way the inventory headlines suggested.

    You probably read yesterday’s coverage of Snohomish County’s April housing market — the NWMLS data showing inventory up 51.8% year-over-year, the median sale price at $738,000, the 2.8 months of supply. That is one accurate way to read this market. Here is another, also accurate, with very different implications.

    The Madrona Group dropped its April 2026 Snohomish County report this week, and it does not look like a market that lost its footing. It looks like a market that is moving slower at the top of the funnel — fewer homes coming on, fewer offers per listing, more buyer hesitation — but where the deals that do happen are happening fast and at strong prices.

    The number we want to focus on is Sales Activity Intensity — and we are going to explain it because it is not a number that shows up in every market report and most readers have never seen it framed this way.

    What Sales Activity Intensity actually measures

    Sales Activity Intensity is the share of all active listings that go pending within the first 30 days on the market. Not closed — pending. Pending is the moment a buyer’s offer has been accepted and the deal is moving toward closing. It is the moment when the market said yes.

    A 54.9% Sales Activity Intensity in Snohomish County for April 2026 means that more than one out of every two homes that listed last month had a buyer say yes within 30 days. That is a fast market. It is fast even after a small dip from March, when the same number was 56.0%.

    For comparison, a market that is genuinely cooling — homes sitting, sellers cutting prices, buyers waiting — typically shows Sales Activity Intensity drop into the 30s or below. When intensity drops below 30%, sellers start to see real concessions show up at the closing table. That is not what we have right now.

    What’s behind the number

    Three factors are working at once in the April 2026 Madrona Group data, and none of them point in the same direction:

    Mortgage rates moved up to 6.45%. That is up from earlier in the year and up enough to price some buyers out at the margin. Higher rates almost always slow demand. They have slowed it some — but they have not killed it.

    Inventory tightened to 1.6 months. A balanced market in real estate is usually 4 to 6 months of inventory. At 1.6 months, Snohomish County is still well into seller’s-market territory. Note this is the Madrona Group’s specific measurement — the broader NWMLS data on the same county shows 2.8 months because the two reports use slightly different inventory definitions and time windows. Both are true. The Madrona number is the tighter view.

    Single-family resale prices held near $877,000 with homes selling at 99.8% of list price on average. When buyers are paying within 0.2% of the asking price, they are not negotiating much. They are competing.

    Put the three factors together: rates went up, but the homes that are listed are still moving fast and selling at almost full asking. The buyers who are still in the market have stopped flinching.

    What this looks like on the ground in Everett

    Everett sits inside the Snohomish County data but does not behave exactly like the county average. The city’s median sale price runs lower than the county figure — Redfin had Everett’s most recent typical home value near $620,000, well under the $738,000 county median that NWMLS reported. The reasons are familiar: more starter homes, more condos, more older housing stock, more variation between neighborhoods.

    The Sales Activity Intensity dynamic still applies in Everett. A waterfront condo at Sawyer or Carling priced reasonably is going pending in days, not weeks. A starter home in Delta or Riverside priced at the neighborhood median is doing the same thing. What sits is what is overpriced. What sits is what assumes the market is still set to 2022.

    We have seen this pattern in our own coverage — the April 2026 condo market story we published last week showed Snohomish County condo averages up 4.4% year-over-year and Everett condos selling in a 22-day median at 99% of list. That is the same fast-but-narrow market the Madrona report is describing, just on a different property type.

    What this means for buyers right now

    If you are buying in Snohomish County in May 2026 and you have been waiting for the market to break, the Madrona data is the latest signal that a wholesale break is not coming. Specific properties will be soft. Specific sellers will negotiate. But the broad market is still leaning seller.

    A few practical takes from how this number sits:

    • Stop waiting for the price to come down before you make an offer. At 54.9% Sales Activity Intensity, the home you are watching probably already has another offer. The price you saw on Zillow last Tuesday may not be the price that closes.
    • Get rate-locked before you write an offer. With rates at 6.45% and trending up rather than down, the rate you can get this week is probably better than the rate you can get if you wait three weeks. A 0.25% rate move on a $620,000 Everett home is roughly $90 a month for the life of the loan.
    • The 99.8% of list price number is the real number. If you are writing offers at 95% of list and watching them lose, that is why. The market is not built for 95% offers right now.

    What this means for sellers right now

    If you are selling in Snohomish County, the Madrona data is telling you something sellers sometimes miss: price-to-list discipline matters more than ever.

    • Price it right and it goes pending in 30 days. Price it 5% high and it sits — and the market has been trained to read sitting as a problem. The 30-day window is the window where intensity captures your home as a fast mover. Past 30 days, you are competing with newer listings.
    • The 99.8% of list price number cuts both ways. You probably will not get more than asking. You also will not have to take much less than asking. So price it where you are happy to close.
    • Inventory is tight but moving up. The Madrona number says 1.6 months, the NWMLS number says 2.8 months — both are tighter than 4-6, but both are looser than 12 months ago. If you have been on the fence about listing, the supply side is finally giving you some company on the market. Earlier was easier. Now is still good.

    How this fits with everything else we know about Snohomish County in April 2026

    This week alone we have seen:

    • The NWMLS report showing 51.8% year-over-year inventory growth and 2.8 months of supply
    • The Madrona Group report showing 1.6 months supply and 54.9% Sales Activity Intensity
    • Snohomish County condo data showing 4.4% YoY appreciation and 22-day Everett median time on market
    • Mortgage rates moving up to 6.45%, the highest level since fall 2025
    • The Sage Investment Econo Lodge studio-apartment conversion announcement in South Everett — 124 new units coming online by August 2026

    None of those data points contradict each other. They are all measuring different parts of the same market. The market is more inventory than it had, fewer offers than it had, slower at the top of the funnel — and still selling fast and near asking when the property is priced right. That is a more complicated story than “the market is hot” or “the market is cooling.” It is the market being different things at the same time depending on which lens you bring.

    The Madrona Group report adds a useful lens: the velocity at which deals close, not just the count of homes listed. That velocity number is what tells you whether the market still works. In April 2026, in Snohomish County, it still works.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is Sales Activity Intensity in real estate?

    Sales Activity Intensity is the percentage of all active listings that go pending — meaning a buyer’s offer has been accepted — within the first 30 days on the market. It is a velocity measure of how fast the average home is moving. Above 50% indicates a fast seller’s market; below 30% indicates real cooling.

    What was Snohomish County’s Sales Activity Intensity in April 2026?

    54.9%, according to the Madrona Group’s April 2026 Snohomish County housing market report. That is down slightly from 56.0% in March. Both numbers indicate a strong seller’s market.

    What are mortgage rates in Snohomish County right now?

    The 30-year fixed rate referenced in the April 2026 Madrona report is 6.45%. Rates have ticked up from earlier in the year. Individual rate quotes vary by lender, credit score, down payment, and loan size.

    Why does the Madrona Group report say 1.6 months of inventory and the NWMLS report say 2.8 months?

    They use slightly different inventory definitions and time windows. The Madrona Group’s measure tends to capture a tighter view focused on actively moving listings. NWMLS uses a broader inventory definition that includes some listings the Madrona view excludes. Both are accurate; both reflect a Snohomish County market still well below the 4-6 month range that defines balance.

    What is the median home price in Snohomish County in April 2026?

    The April 2026 NWMLS report listed the county median sale price at $738,000. The Madrona Group report references single-family resale prices holding near $877,000, which uses a different scope (single-family resale only, with different geographic weighting). The two numbers describe overlapping but not identical slices of the market.

    Is now a good time to buy a home in Everett?

    “Good” depends on your specific situation — your down payment, your job stability, your timeline, the neighborhood you’re targeting. What the April 2026 data says broadly: prices are not falling, inventory is up but still tight, and rates are higher than they were earlier in the year. Waiting for a wholesale price break is currently not what the data supports. Talk to a local agent and a local lender about your specific math.

    Is now a good time to sell a home in Everett?

    Yes, if it is priced right. The market data says homes priced at the neighborhood median are going pending within 30 days at 99.8% of list. Homes priced 5%+ above the neighborhood median sit. Pricing discipline is the difference between a fast sale and a long sit.

  • Snohomish County’s Housing Inventory Just Jumped 51.8% — What That Means for Everett Buyers and Sellers Right Now

    Snohomish County’s Housing Inventory Just Jumped 51.8% — What That Means for Everett Buyers and Sellers Right Now

    What is happening with the Snohomish County housing market in 2026? Snohomish County’s active home listings surged 51.8% year over year in March 2026, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data — one of the five largest inventory increases in the entire NWMLS territory. Despite the supply jump, the median home price held at $738,000 and homes are still selling at 99.9% of asking price in an average of 35 days, as rising mortgage rates (back up to 6.38% by late March) stall buyer momentum without collapsing prices.

    For years, the Snohomish County housing market operated in a single gear: not enough homes, too many buyers, prices up. What we’re seeing in the spring of 2026 is a gear shift — and if you’re buying or selling in Everett right now, the numbers look meaningfully different than they did twelve months ago.

    The Northwest Multiple Listing Service’s March 2026 market snapshot showed 1,900 active residential listings across Snohomish County, representing 2.8 months of supply — up sharply from the sub-1.5-month lows that defined the pandemic-era seller’s market. The county posted a 51.8% year-over-year increase in total active listings, putting it among the top five counties in NWMLS’s 27-county territory for inventory gains. And yet: median sold price held at $738,000. Homes are still closing at 99.9% of list price. More than half of all listings — 54.9% — went pending within the first 30 days.

    What’s happening is a collision between supply recovery and rate pressure, and the outcome is a market that is neither the frenzy of 2021 nor the freeze of late 2023. It’s something more complicated — and more nuanced by price band, neighborhood, and property type than any single headline can capture.

    What the Inventory Surge Actually Means

    A 51.8% jump in active listings sounds dramatic, and in some ways it is. At the depth of the supply crisis in 2021 and 2022, buyers in Snohomish County were competing for a fraction of the homes that are now on the market. The correction is real: there are more options, more time to think, and less risk of getting swept into a bidding war on a property you’ll regret.

    But context matters. Nationally, economists generally define a balanced market as 4–6 months of supply. At 2.8 months, Snohomish County is still solidly in seller’s territory by that standard. What’s changed isn’t the fundamental balance of power — it’s the intensity. Sellers are no longer in a position to list at any price and watch offers pile up. Buyers have time to inspect, to negotiate, to walk away if something doesn’t feel right.

    The data shows that distinction clearly. Average showings per listing dropped to 4.8, meaning buyers are doing fewer casual tours and more intentional ones. The average number of showings before a home went pending was 11 — a number that would have seemed impossibly high during the 3–4 showing average of peak seller’s market years, but reflects a market where buyers are being deliberate rather than desperate.

    What Rising Mortgage Rates Are Doing to the Market

    The inventory increase isn’t happening in isolation. Mortgage rates are doing their part to put a lid on activity. Rates briefly dipped below 6% in February 2026, which triggered a small rush of buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines. By late March, rates climbed back to 6.38%, and that pop of demand faded. Closed sales in March across the NWMLS territory came in at 5,417, up just 0.2% year over year — essentially flat despite the inventory recovery that, in theory, should have enabled more transactions.

    For Everett specifically, the rate environment is pushing buyers into decisions that a lower-rate market would make obvious. At 6.38%, a $577,000 Everett home (approximately the city’s early-2026 median) requires a monthly principal and interest payment of roughly $3,100 on a 20%-down conventional loan — before taxes, insurance, and HOA. At the 30% of income affordability threshold, that requires a household income of approximately $124,000 annually. The Everett area median household income in 2026 sits well below that threshold, which is why first-time buyers are stretched, why rental demand at buildings like Waterfront Place’s Sawyer and Carling remains strong despite a soft rental market, and why conversion projects like the Econo Lodge-to-apartments project in Silver Lake are filling a real need.

    By Property Type: Three Very Different Stories

    The Snohomish County housing market in early 2026 is not one market — it’s three, layered by property type, and each is behaving differently.

    Residential Resale: Competitive But Not Frenzied

    For existing single-family homes, the market is still tilted toward sellers, but the tilt is gentler. Inventory sits at approximately 2.0 months for resale properties, and homes are closing at 99.8% of list price on average. Days on market has lengthened modestly. The $738,000 median price is up 1.2% year over year — still appreciating, but at a rate that buyers can factor into a plan rather than a rate that makes them feel like they’re chasing a moving target.

    The practical implication for Everett buyers: you have time to make an offer you feel good about. You’re unlikely to win at list price on a well-priced home in a good neighborhood, but the days of writing five offers before getting accepted at 15% over asking are gone for most price ranges.

    Condos: The Strongest Performer in the County

    Condominiums are the counterintuitive winner in the current market. The average condo price in Snohomish County rose 4.4% year over year to $586,261 — outperforming single-family appreciation by more than three percentage points. Inventory expanded to 2.7 months, giving buyers meaningful choice without triggering price softness. In Everett specifically, condos were moving in a 22-day median with sellers achieving 99% of list price as of early 2026.

    This pattern reflects the affordability ceiling at work. At a $586,000 average, condos give entry-level buyers a path into Snohomish County ownership that single-family homes at $738,000 median no longer provide at 6.38% rates. For investors, the combination of relative affordability, strong occupancy rates at waterfront rental properties, and rising condo values makes the sub-$600K condo segment worth watching closely through the rest of 2026.

    New Construction: The Buyer’s Opportunity

    New construction is where the current market most favors buyers. The average new construction price in Snohomish County came in at $923,988 in early 2026 — down 2.3% year over year — while closed new construction sales dropped 34.3%. Builders are sitting on inventory they need to move, and that creates leverage for buyers who are flexible on timing and location.

    Builders are actively offering incentives: rate buy-downs, closing cost contributions, and in some cases price adjustments on standing inventory. For a buyer who doesn’t need to be in a specific neighborhood and can wait for a completed unit, the new construction segment in Snohomish County in 2026 offers some of the best negotiating conditions in years.

    What This Means for Everett Specifically

    The county-level numbers describe a broad trend, but Everett’s submarket has its own dynamics. Downtown Everett and the waterfront corridor saw stronger appreciation earlier in 2026 — roughly 11.4% year over year — compared to the -7.5% softness in the 98208 zip code (south and east Everett). Northwest Everett, driven by new infrastructure investment including the recently opened Edgewater Bridge and ongoing waterfront development, posted the strongest appreciation in the city at approximately 22.1%.

    The macro picture for Everett: the city’s development fundamentals remain strong. The Port of Everett waterfront is attracting tenants and investment. The downtown stadium received its $10.6M design authorization. The Millwright District Phase 2 is building out. Boeing’s North Line is ramping. Snohomish County’s industrial market is the most affordable in Puget Sound, drawing logistics users. These are demand generators, and demand generators support home values even when rates are working against them.

    Playbook for Buyers and Sellers in This Market

    If You’re Buying

    You have more time and more leverage than you did 18 months ago, but you’re not in a buyer’s market by any traditional definition. Get pre-approved — sellers still want certainty. For resale homes, coming in slightly below list on properties that have been sitting more than 21 days is reasonable. For new construction, ask about rate buy-downs before accepting the sticker price; builders have flexibility they didn’t have in 2023. If condos fit your lifestyle, the 4.4% appreciation and relative affordability make them worth serious consideration as a first purchase.

    If You’re Selling

    Price accurately from day one. The 54.9% of listings going pending in the first 30 days tells you that well-priced homes are still moving fast. The homes that are sitting are overpriced relative to condition and location. Sellers who price to the market will sell. Sellers who price to last year’s comparable sales will find themselves doing a price reduction they could have avoided. With 1,900 active listings, buyers have enough alternatives to walk away from wishful pricing.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the median home price in Snohomish County in 2026?

    The median sold price for homes in Snohomish County was $738,000 in March 2026, up 1.2% year over year, according to NWMLS data.

    How much did Snohomish County housing inventory increase?

    Active listings in Snohomish County increased 51.8% year over year as of March 2026, one of the five largest inventory gains in the 27-county NWMLS territory.

    What are current mortgage rates for Snohomish County buyers?

    Mortgage rates returned to approximately 6.38% by late March 2026 after briefly dipping below 6% in February, which stalled some buyer activity despite improved inventory.

    How long are homes sitting on the market in Snohomish County?

    Homes in Snohomish County are selling in an average of 35 days as of early 2026, with 54.9% of listings going pending within the first 30 days.

    Is the Snohomish County housing market a buyer’s or seller’s market in 2026?

    With 2.8 months of inventory, the market is technically still a seller’s market (balanced typically requires 4–6 months), but conditions are significantly more favorable for buyers than 2021–2022, with more options, more negotiating room, and less bidding war pressure.

    What is happening with condo prices in Snohomish County?

    Condominiums are outperforming single-family homes, with the average condo price rising 4.4% year over year to $586,261. In Everett specifically, condos are selling in a 22-day median at 99% of list price.