Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal
What Changed
- Compared with the November 6 Morning desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-06-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 8 / 6:33 PM CST Saturday November 7 2026 by Mead, valid 080100Z–081200Z) introduces a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of northwest Washington (approx. 11,612 sq mi, population ~3.08 million including Tacoma, Kent, Federal Way). Isolated damaging gusts possible this evening into tonight with a strongly forced rainband. No Slight or higher. No convective watches currently valid.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0727 UTC November 7 / discussion 2:36 AM EST November 7 by Kleebauer, valid 12Z Nov 07–12Z Nov 08) holds a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of South, Central, and West Texas (Stockton Plateau, Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Valley). Probability of 1–2″ locally along the RGV; low-end flash flood potential especially urban zones. No Moderate or higher.
- NWS High Wind Warnings remain in effect for Northern Washington Coast and Grays Harbor County Coast until 4 AM PST Sunday (gusts to 60 mph), with Wind Advisories inland. Similar High Wind Warnings on Oregon coast. Impacts include tree and power line damage, widespread outages expected.
- Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. Tropical Storm Pena (Central Pacific, 60 mph, well south of Hawaii) poses no U.S. mainland or Gulf threat. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.
- Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC Day 1 or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Overnight LSRs limited; no organized severe reports of note.
Live Status
As of the morning desk on Sunday, November 8, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 8:16 PM PST November 7 / 04:16 UTC November 8), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states there is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over northwest Washington for isolated damaging gusts. A strongly forced prefrontal rainband is moving onshore with very strong low-level flow (50–55 kt southerly in the lowest km). Instability remains weak (MUCAPE 100–150 J/kg), but downdraft-aided mixing may support isolated severe wind gusts as the band reaches the I-5 corridor overnight. Greater lightning potential with post-frontal convection. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible in central Texas into the lower Rio Grande Valley and Maine, but severe potential negligible. No watches or mesoscale discussions currently valid. Homepage confirms Day 1 Marginal (NW WA only); Day 2 and Day 3 No Severe.
WPC Day 1 ERO confirms a Marginal Risk across parts of south, central, and west Texas. Elevated convection expected overnight into early Sunday along the Rio Grande Valley with locally 1–2 inches possible. Low-end flash flood prospects in urban zones and higher runoff areas. No broader Moderate risk. NWS national products include the High Wind Warnings and Advisories for the Pacific Northwest coasts and inland areas, Flood Watch in Texas, and routine freeze, high wind, and red flag products elsewhere. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above Marginal.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~8:16 PM PST Nov 7 / 04:16 UTC Nov 8 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. TS Pena (CPAC, 60 mph) far south of Hawaii; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. |
| Severe | Marginal | SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 8): Marginal Risk over NW Washington (~11.6k sq mi). Isolated damaging gusts this evening/tonight with rainband. No watches or MDs valid. Severe potential negligible elsewhere (TX, ME). |
| Flood | Marginal | WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk parts of S/central/west TX (RGV, Edwards Plateau). Locally 1–2″ possible overnight. Low-end flash flood potential. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watch TX. |
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
Restoration Read
Dominant residual ticket is wind damage and power outages across coastal Washington and Oregon from High Wind Warnings (gusts to 60 mph) and the SPC Marginal Risk corridor in northwest Washington. Tree and line damage expected; widespread outages possible through early Sunday. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors and higher terrain along the Rio Grande Valley and Edwards Plateau in Texas under the WPC Marginal. No organized widespread catastrophic damage expected. Monitor for debris, water intrusion, and high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.