This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Thursday, September 24, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe corridor from Wednesday’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk did verify on the Local Storm Report board — a brief tornado west of Hettinger and baseball-size hail near South Heart, North Dakota. Convective watches are not currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, valid 241200Z–251200Z, carries no categorical severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated stronger storms with hail or gusty winds remain possible late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas.
The water desk is still the national headline, not wind. Weather Prediction Center short-range language this morning keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into the south-central Plains, with a broader Marginal Risk from the Four Corners into the central Plains as leftover tropical moisture and embedded shortwaves keep training cells possible on already wet ground. These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover water in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, isolated hail and wind on the Dakotas just-hit pile, and a Hawaii watch for Tropical Storm Nolo well south of the Big Island.
Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, a Sunday-night eastern Colorado and western Kansas product that expired days ago. Yesterday’s western Dakotas and southern Appalachians Marginal Risk is off the Day 1 map. The 0600 UTC discussion from Guyer and Thornton is plain: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. The same discussion still flags pockets of moderate destabilization into peak heating across southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and the southern High Plains.
The SPC overview hazard matrix later this morning lists Thursday as a Marginal severe day. Treat that as the later-cycle read against the published 0600 UTC text of “no severe thunderstorm areas forecast.” Either way, this is not a watch morning. Isolated hail or a damaging gust is the ceiling unless a new outlook or mesoscale discussion draws a tighter box this afternoon.
On the flood side, Wednesday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Moderate Risk over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and central and eastern New Mexico has rolled off the valid window. Thursday language from WPC’s short-range public discussion is a step down: Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into portions of the south-central Plains, Marginal Risk across much of the Four Corners into the central Plains. Soils are still saturated. Rates, not coverage, are the problem if a cell trains.
Hotspot 1 — New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas
This remains the water desk. Overnight, National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Warning for northwestern Grant, southeastern Hamilton, western Kearny, northeastern Morton, and eastern Stanton Counties in southwestern Kansas until 5:00 a.m. CDT. Radar-indicated totals of 2 to 3 inches were already on the ground at issuance, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. That warning is off the clock this morning. It is the signature of the same moisture plume that spent midweek over New Mexico.
WPC still expects scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday as large-scale forcing weakens but instability and embedded shortwave energy remain. Portions of New Mexico and Texas stay sensitive because of the multi-day rain. Localized 1-inch-per-hour rates on burn scars, arroyos, urban streets, and low water crossings are the first failures. A separate, lower-coverage pulse is possible in southeast Arizona under the same southwesterly mid-level flow.
Restoration read: extraction and drying on buildings that took water Tuesday and Wednesday, plus a new poor-drainage ticket if a cell parks on a ZIP that already failed. Do not treat the whole Moderate-Risk footprint from yesterday as still live. Staff the county that still has a warning, not the outline from Wednesday afternoon.
Hotspot 2 — Western North Dakota just-hit pile
Wednesday afternoon’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk produced the overnight LSR pile. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports for the 1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24 window include:
- A brief tornado around 2236 UTC about 3 miles south-southwest of Bucyrus in Adams County, North Dakota, based on social-media video and radar, west of Hettinger. NWS Bismarck logged the location as approximate.
- Quarter-size hail (1.00 inch) at New England, Hettinger County, at 2307 UTC.
- Half-dollar hail (1.25 inches) about 3 miles southeast of Belfield, Stark County, at 2340 UTC.
- Baseball-size hail (2.75 inches) about 2 miles southwest of South Heart, Stark County, at 2345 UTC.
Those are official preliminary LSRs, not social rumor. Hail that size breaks windows, dents siding, and wrecks HVAC fins. The tornado report is a one-minute touchdown, not a long-track event. Restoration work there is already a survey-and-tarp job, not a new watch.
Hotspot 3 — Southern High Plains scatter plus leftover wind reports
SPC’s Day 1 discussion leaves the door open for a few stronger, locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas. That is isolated hail and gusty outflow, not a Slight Risk corridor. Yesterday’s board also carries a 58 mph thunderstorm gust 4 miles southeast of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC, and a tree down in Van Wert, Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC. Those are scatter, not a line.
Farther east, an amplifying coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic and New England is a marine and coastal-flood story, not a convective watch. WPC flags coastal flooding, rip currents, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend. That is a different desk from the New Mexico flood pulse.
Tropical — Nolo south of Hawaii, not a mainland landfall
Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday, Nolo was about 285 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and about 460 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, stationary, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 999 mb. Official language: Nolo is forecast to intensify into a hurricane late today and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. That is a Hawaii County and offshore-waters problem, not a Gulf or East Coast landfall. Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys remain in the eastern Pacific off Mexico. Tropical Storm Fay is in the open Atlantic well west-southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat.
Just hit
Wednesday’s live desk was still water over central and eastern New Mexico, with SPC trimmed to a western Dakotas Marginal. That Dakotas box verified overnight on hail and a brief tornado. The New Mexico Moderate flood risk has stepped down to Slight into the south-central Plains. Southwestern Kansas took a late-night flash-flood warning that expired at 5:00 a.m. CDT. No new convective watch fired overnight. Watch 674 is not today’s product.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| NM into TX/OK Panhandles and western KS | Flash flood, training heavy rain | WPC Slight excessive rainfall | Live flood overlay; KS FFW expired 5 a.m. CDT |
| SE AZ / southern NM / southern High Plains | Isolated hail, gusty wind, heavy rain | SPC 0600 UTC: no categorical area; isolated stronger storms possible | Afternoon–evening scatter |
| Western ND (Hettinger / Stark) | Hail damage, brief tornado | Yesterday Marginal; LSRs in | Just-hit / survey |
| Four Corners to central Plains | Isolated heavy rain | WPC Marginal excessive rainfall | Diurnal cells |
| East Coast marine / New England coast | Coastal flood, wind, heavy rain | WPC / OPC coastal low | Not a convective watch |
| Hawaii — Nolo | Tropical storm to hurricane risk south of the islands | CPHC TS Nolo, 50 mph | Watch Hawaii products, not mainland |
| Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland | No landfalling hurricane | Quiet on the mainland coast | Quiet |
What this means for restoration teams
New Mexico and the southern High Plains are still a water week. Saturated ground plus another Slight Risk means the next training cell is a wet-drywall and crawlspace ticket, not a surprise. Photograph and extract what already flooded before you chase a new ZIP. Southwestern Kansas counties that sat under last night’s warning should be treated as just-hit poor-drainage work until local offices drop the flood language.
Western North Dakota is a hail desk. Baseball stone southwest of South Heart is broken glass and bruised roofs. The Adams County tornado report is a narrow path. Staff it as a local damage survey. Do not read “tornado” on an LSR board as a regional event.
If the later SPC cycle firms a Marginal box over the southern High Plains, the work is still isolated hail and outflow, not a watch. Stage tarps only where a warning is live. Hawaii shops should follow Central Pacific Hurricane Center products on Nolo, not this CONUS flood pulse.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo and Odalys are eastern Pacific storms off Mexico. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Nolo is a Central Pacific storm still south of the Big Island. The CONUS work this morning is leftover flood water, a North Dakota hail pile, and a quiet watch board.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2, valid Friday, currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC still sees the moisture axis shifting east Friday into the south-central Plains and Midwest with another heavy-rain overlay possible. SPC Day 3 language returns a Marginal Risk later in the weekend as an upper trough works the central United States. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming Thursday’s quiet watch board is the last line of the week.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, September 24, 2026; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0705 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports for 20260923 1200 UTC–20260924 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and short-range public discussion valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Saturday; National Weather Service Dodge City flash-flood warning text for southwestern Kansas; Central Pacific Hurricane Center / National Hurricane Center public products on Tropical Storm Nolo as of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Western Dakotas Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.
